National Planning up from and down to Panchayat Planning

Posted here is my suggestion (in Year 2010) of Panchayat Planning.

Collaborative Strategic Planning at Panchayat Level is Essential to Get to a Developed India

Som Karamchetty [1]

Abstract

There is strong optimism that India will become a developed country in the next thirty to fifty years. Most of the descriptions about the developed country have been qualitative. In this article, I am making an attempt to project a potential goal state in quantitative terms when we can say that India has arrived as a developed country. It is necessary to set a target Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and project when that goal might be reached under a certain set of assumptions. This target will also allow one to measure how closer the country is to the goal and how well it is progressing in terms of schedule. But, there are more important features for a developed country beyond the GDP figure. Social development should be a simultaneous goal of leaders. People at the bottom of the pyramid have to be moved to the middle. Advanced technological developments of the twentieth century give rise to the hope that with enlightened leadership, development can reach the masses. The smart approach may lie in planning large scale knowledge-intensive businesses that create goods and services while generating employment opportunities for hundreds of millions of people in India. Common citizens have the democratic power to choose wise leadership and give the later a mandate to develop knowledge based strategic development goals. This leadership consists of the Members of the Parliament, Members of the State Assemblies, and other elected leaders of local constituencies, such as the Panchayats.

Strategic planning is the key to assuring citizens that their elected leaders are working on a defined path. This calls for the development of a series of congruent strategic plans from the national to state to local level. These plans should dovetail at various levels and complement one another. Local planning gives ownership of the plan to local people, takes local inputs, tunes to the environment, allows close monitoring, responds to feedback, facilitates support, ensures sharing of sacrifices and results, and leads to success in plan execution. When several thousand panchayats undertake planning, there is need for an information technology tool that guides local planners by providing templates/formats and guidance on how to generate information and data for the plan. In the next stage, a format processor integrates the information and data in appropriate ways to create plans for the district, state, and national levels. For a successful national effort, such a plan development project should be web based. The process of creating the infrastructure and tools necessary for plan development is described in this paper.

List of Tables

Table 1: Contributions by various sectors to the US Gross Domestic Product (2005 data).

Table 2: Employees (both full time and part time) in various industries in the US (2005).

Table 3: Projection of Indian employment by industry in a developed India with a population of one billion.

Table 4: Projecting Employment in Andhra Pradesh State and Vizianagaram District in a Developed India.
Table 5: Projected Employment in a Typical Panchayat in Andhra Pradesh State in a Developed India.

Table 6: Illustrative Example of NAICS Codes and Titles.

Table 7: Employed US persons by Major Occupation, average for year 2000 (in Thousands).

Table 8: Percent distribution of all hours worked by men in the private business sector by years of completed schooling in 1999.

Table 9: Mean hourly earnings for selected occupations, all workers, all industries, selected areas, April 2000.

Table 10: Strategic Goals in Physiological Needs (Illustrative list only).

Table 11: Strategic Goals in Safety and Security needs (Illustrative list only).

Table 12: Strategic Goals in Social or Affiliation Needs (Illustrative list only).

Table 13: Strategic Goals in Esteem and Recognition Needs (Illustrative list only).

Table 14: Strategic Goals in creating an environment to enable as many people as those who wish to satisfy their Self Actualization Needs.

Table 15: A Typical Set of Categories for Background of a Panchayat.

Table 16: A Typical Set of Categories for Situational Analysis.

Table 17: Example of a Means Plan.

List of Figures

Figure 1: Businesses cater to human needs.

Figure 2: Maslow’s Need Hierarchy.

Figure 3: GDP grows by 10% annually to reach about $40 Trillion in forty years.

Figure 4: Agricultural or Farm Labor has to decline every year.

Figure 5: Schematic of a process for developing the subgoals.

Figure 6: Provider Pyramid: Basic Needs are satisfied by various industries and businesses.

Figure 7: Provider Pyramid: Basic needs and the industries that satisfy them.

Figure 8: Generic and specific models showing how businesses satisfy human needs.

Figure 9: Responsibility for Need satisfaction shifts with development.

Figure 10: System undergoing a change through a process.

Part 1: India as a Developed Country

Introduction

     While Indian leaders have been talking of visions [2] of India becoming a developed country in 20 to 50 years, there is need for defining the goal state in quantitative terms. President Kalam says, “An India aspiring to a developed status must have a technology vision.” Kalam defines and explains what the developed status means. [3] Sam Pitroda [4] says, “… value systems have the power to define and transform a country’s economy.” Pitroda goes on, “Every person who has the drive should have the opportunity to be a future Bill Gates. In the end, it is about building wealth, where the tools are the people.” In essence, Kalam and Pitroda are advocating the empowerment of people with knowledge and the ability to set a vision for oneself and collectively for the nation. This is a refreshing thought and is contrary to the expectation by illiterate masses that a ruler or government will uplift them out of poverty and into self sufficiency and riches.

     Business leaders, political leaders, workers, managers, and citizens are the key stakeholders in national development. Businesses create wealth, provide jobs, and generate incomes for the citizens of countries. These incomes enable citizens to buy goods and services to satisfy their basic needs and some or all of their wants. Figure 1 shows this simple connection. Thus, a close coupling exists between social development and business health. Smart political and business strategies take advantage of all available avenues and opportunities for rapid economic and social development. Political leadership is responsible to devise policies that allow the entire population to get equal opportunity to benefit from the national economic development in the long term. Through global information flow, the historically suppressed people have become aware of their human rights and have been pressuring the political leaders in emerging and evolving democracies to fulfill the broad pronouncements of the political leaders and promises of expeditious social development.

Figure 1: Businesses Cater to Human Needs.

Social Development

     Abraham Maslow [5] presents a hierarchy of human needs. Maslow’s Need Hierarchy (or Ladder) consists of five types of human needs, 1) Physiological needs, 2) Safety and security needs, 3) Social or affiliation needs, 4) Esteem and recognition needs, and 5) Self actualization, as shown in Figure 2.

     At the bottom of the hierarchy or pyramid are the physiological needs ¾ the most basic needs essential for survival ¾ include the needs for food, liquid, shelter, sex, sleep, and oxygen. Safety and security needs emerge once the physiological needs are satisfied. The belongingness and love needs emerge as an individual hungers for affectionate relations from people in general, for a place in his or her group. In the middle of the ladder is the need for affiliation, association, to love, and to be loved. The esteem needs fall into two categories, self-respect and esteem from other people. Esteem and recognition are at a higher echelon on the ladder. Finally, self-actualization need is the desire to become more and more what one is, to become everything that one is capable of becoming. According to Maslow, "Human needs arrange themselves in hierarchies of prepotency," and, "No need or drive can be treated as if it were isolated or discrete; every drive is related to the state of satisfaction or dissatisfaction of other drives."

Figure 2: Maslow’s Need Hierarchy.

     Maslow’s Need Hierarchy forms an excellent framework for a discussion of human needs and social development. The hierarchy helps in an analysis of how one can achieve economic development, peace, and harmony in the world since such a framework is based on people's needs. [6] The excellent economic results of the developed countries should convince one to believe in the relevance of Maslow’s need hierarchy in a discussion of developmental needs. Most people in the developed countries have their needs at the bottom two levels of the hierarchy satisfied. This statement does not mean that the developed countries have installed perpetual production machines that yield goods and services without continued hard work from people and smart policies on the part of their leadership. By and large, most people in these countries have moved into the middle of the pyramid.
     According to India's first Social Development Report, [7], “26 per cent or about 260 million (193 million in rural areas and 67 million in urban areas) — of Indians are still below the poverty line.” These people have their basic needs unmet. Consequently, Indian political leaders campaign on the catchy slogan, “Roti, Kapda, and Makan” [8] (bread, clothing, and shelter) because that slogan is a sure vote getter. After they gain political power, these leaders lay emphasis exclusively on farm sector for employment of a vast majority of people, perhaps with a sincere belief that the farm sector will solve or alleviate the problems of the malnourished, half-clad, and homeless. As we will see in later sections, this policy may only be trapping these millions in the vicious cycle of poverty at the bottom of the pyramid.
     Azim Premji said to Asiaweek, [13] “The power of the mind is the critical resource in the information age. This is where we as a nation have a major competitive advantage.” He further added, “Government must take bold visionary steps, as we have nothing to lose but our poverty. If we win, we will create immense national wealth to be shared by everyone.” Again from the perspective of Maslow’s Need Hierarchy, the information age implies the moving of people to the middle of the ladder. I will discuss this theme further in later sections.
     Quoting Narendra Modi, Tavleen Singh wrote of the need to invent the concept of ‘ruburbs’ or areas that would remain rural but have the public services that urbanization brings and that the fight against poverty will in the end only be won if we empower the poor to join the fight. [9] In another writing, Tavleen Singh said, “Instead of spending thousands and thousands of crores every year on schemes that work marginally at best, what we need to do is invest that money on skills training programmes, better schools and better public services in general. In rural parts, it is not just schools that exist mostly on paper, but hospitals, public transport, electricity, drinking water and almost everything else.” [10] She further stated, “… grandiose centrally planned schemes of this kind have never worked in the past. The problem with centrally planned poverty alleviation in a country the size of a continent is that it is that they fail the implementability test.” [11]
     Yoginder K. Alagh writes, “ … the more interesting ideas for agriculture in the budget are in the education, health and social security programme. The Rs 30,000 insurance scheme for unorganised workers, many in the agricultural sector, the 24x7 primary health centres, the schools and colleges in rural areas, particularly for poor children and girls, have great possibilities. Also, the knowledge networks, if scaled to village needs and implemented in a manner that the villages can maintain them, with models already available, can all play a role.” [12] Panchayat planning allows them a greater opportunity to participate.

Impact of Farming and Business Sector on Social Development

     Millenniums ago, vast stretches of land supported small populations of nomads. But, as populations grew and land resources became limited, people had to move into a developed state or perish. [14] In the US, Canada, and Australia, deployment of highly technical knowledge, machinery, and optimization of inputs, while employing only a small amount of human labor, resulted in the production of great quantities of food needed to support billions of people all over the world. In the last several decades, by providing subsidies to farmers not to grow food grains, these governments have been reducing the less productive farming enterprises. Now with increased farm productivity, the small number of agricultural entrepreneurs (farmer business people) in these developed countries provides enough food for the entire populations while enjoying good living standards themselves.
     In a broader sense, businesses are the only organizations that produce goods and services and satisfy people’s needs and demands. As described in the previous paragraph, Western agricultural businesses (both family farmers and farm conglomerates) produce food products and make them available to people to satiate their hunger. Being preoccupied with the hunger problem, the Third World has now rightly placed emphasis on food production. But by combining this primary objective of adequate food production with the additional objective of providing employment to the teeming millions as agricultural laborers, leaders of the Third World are actually preventing their enterprising farmers from achieving high productivity. These leaders should follow the strategies employed by the developed world and move the surplus manpower away from agricultural fields into industrial and commercial businesses. I will discuss more on this item in a later section.

Growing India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

     Dr. Abdul Kalam, a past president of India, has been advocating the vision of a developed India in twenty to thirty years. [15] It is important to analyze the implications of that goal explicitly and quantitatively. We may start an analysis with the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council’s estimate of India's gross domestic product at $902 billion, (2006-07) as the basis. [16] If India grows its GDP by 13.8 times, it brings the country to the year 2005 US GDP level of $12.4 trillion (in about 30 years). Since Indian population is about three times that of the US, Indian GDP has to grow to $37 trillion (41.4 times its 2006-07 level) so that Indians reach the per capita level of the US (2005). [17] Since the US is the leader of the developed world, this GDP target will be highly likely to be accepted as an excellent measure of development. Of course, Indian political leaders will definitely point to the wide disparities in income distribution in the US and argue for policies that ensure a more equitable distribution of economic opportunities and wealth. Yes! That is a fair argument.

     When India grows by the magnitude suggested in the above paragraph uniformly, the bottom 5% of Indians who now live on a dollar a day will get $41.4 dollars a day. That is $15,000 or Rupees 650,000 per year, which is the earning capacity of a software engineer in India in 2006. We can safely claim that when people at the bottom of the pyramid are brought to this level, India has truly reached a developed state.

     DominicWilson and Roopa Purushothaman [18] in the Goldman Sachs Global Economic Paper #99 of 1st October 2003 estimate that “India has the potential to show the fastest growth over the next 30 and 50 years.” Tushar Poddar and Eva Yi [19] in the Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No: 152 of January 22, 2007 predict, “India’s high growth rate since 2003 represents a structural increase rather than simply a cyclical upturn.” These authors project India’s potential or sustainable growth rate at about 8% until 2020. They go on to say, “India’s potential growth rates could increase further, given sustained productivity growth and favorable demographics, if it can significantly increase capital accumulation.” “India’s potential growth rates could increase further, given sustained productivity growth and favorable demographics, if it can significantly increase capital accumulation. We estimate that India would need to boost its investment rate by another 16% of GDP to achieve and sustain a growth rate of 10%.” According to a report from Goldman Sachs, [20] Indian PPP (purchasing power parity) measure of GDP will exceed that of US in 2038 and will be at approximately $23 trillion.

     At a 10 percent compounded annual growth rate, it takes nearly forty years to accomplish a growth of 41.4 times.  See Figure 3. That is indeed stupendous progress! Of course, it takes 49 years (i.e. just eight more years) to get about 41.4 times growth at 8 percent rate in stead of the 10 percent rate. Using the Goldman Sachs reports, India Daily [21] summarized, “If the recent growth of productivity level will be maintained it would help India to sustain the 8% growth until 2020. By that year, India will be emerged as the second largest economy in the world. And with this pace of growth India will overtake US by 2050.”

Figure 3: GDP Growth by 10% annually takes it to about $40 Trillion in Forty Years.

      But, an anomalous situation arises if we merely look at this growth mathematically or analytically. If every worker, whether he is a farmer growing tomatoes or a doctor in a small town, or an accountant in the city, improves his or her earning capacity by the same factor (41.4 in the selected scenario), then the nation accomplishes its GDP goal — analytically speaking. But, that scenario produces so much food products that the markets will only collapse. The high end goods, such as automobiles and airplane seats, will not be available in sufficient quantity to meet the demand as more people, e.g. tomato growers, will have a lot of money to spend. There is therefore a massive shift needed in the type of goods and services produced if and as India moves towards its goal of a developed country status through a revolutionary GDP growth. In other words, such an increase in GDP may be gained by knowledge enhancement rather than by farming alone. Perhaps, envisioning such an actuality, Mr. Chidambaram, India’s then Finance Minister, said, “No country can afford to have 65 per cent of its working population dependent on land.” [22] In response to a question: What do you think the U.S. industry of the 21st century is going to be? — “Agriculture!” Craig Barrett, Chairman of Intel, said, [23] "We're sending our workers into the marketplace with a disadvantage: their education.” The lesson from the US business leader’s observation should be that India strives hard to move a substantial part of its 65 per cent of agricultural workers away from agriculture and into class rooms to get knowledge and skills. Figure 4 shows the projected decline needed to make such a shift in people’s occupation over time. 

Figure 4: Projected Decline of Indian Agricultural or Farm Labor as India Becomes a Developed Country.

     According to a report on a web site [24] data released for the year 2006-2007, India's GDP grew at an impressive 9.2 per cent. The share of different sectors of the economy in India's GDP is as follows: Agriculture - 18.5 per cent, Industry - 26.4 per cent, and Services - 55.1 per cent. The fact that the service sector now accounts for more than half the GDP is a milestone in India's economic history and takes it closer to the fundamentals of a developed economy. At the time of independence, agriculture occupied the major share of GDP while the contribution of services was relatively very less.
     Laveesh Bhandari [25] writes, “There were 141.1 million hectares of net sown area as per the Ministry of Agriculture in 2000-01. There were 127.3 million cultivators and 106.8 million agriculture labourers as per the Census of India.” The number of cultivators has to decrease to about 4 million in a developed India. The rest of the 123 million cultivators and most of the 106 million agriculture laborers would have to move out of the land and into knowledge professions. With a $37 trillion dollar economy in a developed India, and with a 1% share by agriculture (i.e. $0.37 trillion), the 4 million agricultural entrepreneurs will have average annual earnings of nearly $100,000.
      A McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) study [26] titled "The 'Bird of Gold' predicts that by 2025 the “middle class in India will have grown almost 12 times, from 50 million today to 583 million. Over 23 million Indians will become the country's wealthiest citizens.” The overall economic growth will lead to a decline in the deprived segment from 54 per cent of the population in 2005 to 22 percent by 2025 benefiting India's poorest people. The report shows that 291 million people will move out of poverty during a period while 322 million people will be added to the country's population. In effect, India will have 465 million fewer poor people by 2025 if the poverty rate remains at 2005 levels.
While inaugurating the campus of the Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [27] said, “Industrialisation is vital for economic development and the broader social transformation of India even if it throws up challenges like the alienation of working class, environment damage and displacement of people.” "It is only through rapid industrialisation that we can find meaningful solution to the problem of mass unemployment, underdevelopment," the prime minister said.

Education is Key to Development

    A developed India depends on a knowledge based and skill intensive work force. Hence, education and training are important characteristics of such an economy. National literacy rate will have to be brought to nearly one hundred percent as the nation marches towards a developed state. Young people will have to be trained and equipped to take up the millions of jobs that become available in a developed India. An initial list of occupational skills (as a guide) can be obtained from the US Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT). [28]

     The 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) System was developed in response to a growing need for a universal occupational classification system in the US. [29] “Such a classification system allows government agencies and private industry to produce comparable data. Users of occupational data include government program managers, industrial and labor relations practitioners, students considering career training, job seekers, vocational training schools, and employers wishing to set salary scales or locate a new plant. It is used by federal agencies collecting occupational data, providing a means to compare occupational data across agencies. It is designed to cover all occupations in which work is performed for pay or profit, reflecting the current occupational structure in the United States.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the US Department of Labor (DOL) also publishes Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) [30] and Career Guide to Industries (CGI), [31] which provide useful information for planners in the business sector and individual citizens. Of course, as new scientific discoveries are made and new technologies emerge, new requirements in education and training will also come into view.

     Most Indians recognize the value of education as seen in the 61st National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) [32], which reported that the expenditure on tuition and other educational fee rose to nearly three times over its 1999-2000 level and in urban areas reached 2.5 times its earlier period. The reliance on private tutors and coaching centers has also increased. This is a strong indicator that people are ready to forsake unskilled avocations in preference to knowledge based and skill intensive jobs for their children.

Plan Horizon

     The possibility that India becomes a developed country in thirty to fifty years has very interesting and intriguing posers. If one thinks for a moment, forty years is not a lot of time to train and equip the human resource development requirements of a truly developed country. A middle aged farm laborer who is in his thirties now will be a seventy year old person contemplating retirement. That laborer’s five year old child now on the verge of entering an elementary school to pursue education or following the parent’s footsteps into a job on the farm, will be either a forty-five year old professional participating in the growth phenomenon or an unemployed acting as a drag on a fast paced economy, which would be trying to reduce the number of farm laborers from its current 65 percent to a future 1 percent. For this laborer’s child to partake in the economic revolution, the parents and the child will have to plan and focus on quality education from now onwards for the next sixteen to twenty years. In reality, various Indian communities have to gain the foresight to plan and bring quality professional education and knowledge sources within the reach of the new generation from now forward. If India fails to plan for human resource development and knowledge acquisition, the economic revolution will remain a dream and is not realized. The farm worker’s child cited earlier will either become a hindrance to economic growth or an active participant in making India a developed country depending largely on the current plans and decisions of that child’s parents. Individuals have to develop their own financial and life planning concomitantly, but that is topic for another white paper.

Using US Economic Sectoral Distributions as Guide to Development in India

     It will be very instructive at this point in this white paper to examine the relative contributions by various sectors to the US GDP using the 2005 data shown in Table 1 compiled from US Bureau of Economic Analysis data to look for guidance for an India aspiring to become a developed country. This table shows that Agriculture contributed less than 1 percent to the US GDP in the year 2005. On the other hand, real estate, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, professional technical services, health care, finance and insurance made very high percentage contributions. This data and information should convince Indian leaders to conclude that while the nation should put sufficient emphasis on agricultural production, they should look seriously for other sectors to employ and uplift people economically. Coincidentally, these sectors fall in the middle areas of Maslow’s need hierarchy, whither humans yearn to move up any way.

Table 1: Contributions by various sectors to the US Gross Domestic Product (2005 data) [33]

Contribution by Sector	Billions of US Dollars	Percent of National GDP
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing	119	0.96
Mining	214	1.73
Utilities	239	1.93
Construction	594	4.79
Durable Goods, Manufacturing	868	7.00
Nondurable goods, manufacturing	628	5.06
Wholesale trade	733	5.91
Retail trade	829	6.69
Transportation and warehousing	362	2.92
Information	578	4.66
Finance and Insurance	1,012	8.16
Real estate, rental, leasing	1,563	12.60
Professional and technical services	862	6.95
Management of companies	231	1.86
Administrative and waste services	375	3.02
Educational services	113	0.91
Healthcare and social assistance	864	6.97
Arts, entertainment and recreation	118	0.95
Accommodation and food services	338	2.73
Other services	295	2.38
Government	1,475	11.90
TOTAL US GDP (2005)	12,400	100

     In order to reinforce these points, the distribution of US employment compiled from US Bureau of Economic Census Data is presented in Table 2. This table shows that in the US, Agriculture provides only 1 percent of the employment. At the same time, manufacturing, retail trade, professional and business services, and health care together account for 44.46 percent of the employment. The obvious lesson for Indian national leaders from the data in Tables 1 and 2 is that their planning focus should be on moving people away from agriculture and towards these industries and professions. Such a move implies massive education, training, skill development, and knowledge enhancement. It also means a farm sector with high productivity and economic returns. Of course, in harmony with such human resource development, there is the need for development of industrial and business sectors also. The foregoing argument does not mean that the agricultural sector will be less intensive of knowledge and skills. Far from it! The unskilled labor will be displaced by machinery and the remaining farmers actually become farmer entrepreneurs and highly skilled in and knowledgeable of a high productivity farming sector.

Table 2: Employees (both full time and part time) in various industries in the US (2005) [34]

Industry Title	Thousands	Percent
All industries	141,218	100.00
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting	1,473	1.04
Mining	564	0.40
Utilities	554	0.39
Construction	7,567	5.36
Manufacturing	14,328	10.15
Wholesale trade	5,850	4.14
Retail trade	15,763	11.16
Transportation and warehousing	4,379	3.10
Information	3,079	2.18
Finance and insurance	6,101	4.32
Real estate and rental and leasing	2,207	1.56
Professional and business services	17,384	12.31
Educational services	2,911	2.06
Health care and social assistance	15,021	10.64
Arts, entertainment, and recreation	1,981	1.40
Accommodation and food services	11,027	7.81
Other services, except government	6,901	4.89
Government	24,128	17.09

     Since its population is about three times as large as that of the US, Indian employment distribution, in its hypothetical and developed state, is likely to be as shown in Table 3. For those political leaders who are fighting for a few thousand seats at IIT’s and IIM’s, the lesson from the data in these three tables is that they redirect their political forces to make this shift towards a knowledge and skill based highly productive economy in the next forty years [35]. India can make revolutionary progress only by employing the creative edge of sharp minds for the next thirty to fifty years. The fruits of development can be distributed and enjoyed only as they ripen!

Table 3: Projection of Indian employment by industry in a developed India with a population of one billion (Data obtained by projecting the data in Table 2 above).

Industry Title	Thousands	Percent
All industries	423,654	100.00
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting	4,419	1.04
Mining	1,692	0.40
Utilities	1,662	0.39
Construction	22,701	5.36
Manufacturing	42,984	10.15
Wholesale trade	17,550	4.14
Retail trade	47,289	11.16
Transportation and warehousing	13,137	3.10
Information	9,237	2.18
Finance and insurance	18,303	4.32
Real estate and rental and leasing	6,621	1.56
Professional and business services	52,152	12.31
Educational services	8,733	2.06
Health care and social assistance	45,063	10.64
Arts, entertainment, and recreation	5,943	1.40
Accommodation and food services	33,081	7.81
Other services, except government	20,703	4.89
Government	72,384	17.09

      This shift in the economy in its stride will also address the needs for safety and security - the second basic need in Maslow’s Hierarchy - almost as a byproduct. When, unlike the case now, the deep divide between those who can satisfy their basic needs and those who cannot, is bridged by equipping citizens with knowledge and skills. Internal peace and security can be maintained relatively easily as the numbers of dispossessed get smaller. (The number of unemployed people available for demonstrations, bus burnings, dharnas, bandhs, and rasta rokos will be small!) Here again, the experience of the developed countries provides justification for this inference.

     Once the nation produces enough food for its population (and some more for storage and possible export), there is not a great deal of room in the agricultural and food sectors as the elasticity of demand for food is limited. Once hunger is satisfied, people cannot consume twice or thrice as much food. People will use their additional incomes to satisfy their higher level needs some of which have a higher elasticity of demand.

     Indian Express [36] in an editorial said, “What big industry does well is big industry, what rural India needs in this context are jobs created by industry — factory employment is the best route for unskilled, poorly literate labour to go up the earnings and economic security ladder — and such jobs would mean changing local socio-economic structures. There’s little point wanting the impossibility of keeping villages structurally intact and simultaneously bringing mass economic upliftment to them. Rural business hubs sound nice. But factories are where jobs and taxable entities will be found.” The argument in the above editorial, viz., the jobs are where the factories and businesses are, is quite valid, leaving the otherwise redundant city versus rural comparison for now.

     Poddar and Yi [37] “estimate a massive 700 million people (roughly equivalent to the entire current population of Europe) will move to cities by 2050. This will have significant implications for demand for urban infrastructure, real estate, and services.” Indian Express as well as the duo of Poddar and Yi may rethink their positions on this “move to cities.” The current population of Europe is well developed but is not located in dozens of cities. They are literally spread over a wide continent with many cities, towns, and clusters of villages. There are 74 cities in Europe with a population of more than one million. [38] If we count smaller urban areas, there are 28,830 cities in Europe. [39] If India were to follow this urbanization model of Europe, the country need not focus on only a dozen mega-cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Bangalore, but it may develop several thousand cities and towns to bring urban amenities to most communities. It is a challenge for community and economic planners to create a city-like infrastructure in small towns for businesses to thrive and to benefit 700 million (currently rural) people.

     Of course, further examination of the US development model shows that factory jobs alone are not the panacea for a developed India. Table 3 shows that manufacturing provides only 10 percent of the total US jobs, which means that eventually, even factories are not the sole solution as the elasticity of demand for factory goods, though higher than that for food, is limited. Consequently, the nation has to focus on a wider spectrum of jobs.

     It is estimated that “there are 100 million knowledge workers in the US alone.” [40] In a developed India, with three times the population of the US, there should be 300 million knowledge workers. These knowledge workers are created by knowledge centers, viz., the universities, colleges, polytechnics, vocational schools, industrial training institutes (ITI), and training centers. [41] Knowledge is the means to develop products and services as ends while one considers the basic needs of humans. As people move to the highest rungs on the Maslow’s need ladder, knowledge (intellectual pursuit) itself becomes the end.

Common People Need Opportunities to Move up the Ladder

     Use of advanced and emerging technologies such as the Internet, communication satellites, submarine fiber optic cable, and wireless telephones helped the growth of the Indian economy in the last decade. But, markets do not necessarily ensure that the benefits of increased efficiency of the production system are shared by all citizens. Countries must be prepared to embrace the policies needed, and in the case of the poorest, countries may need the support of the international community as well. The salvation for the bottom of the ladder is at the middle of the ladder. Governments and businesses have an obligation to create opportunities for people to move to the middle of the ladder by creating jobs there. Knowledge, i.e. education, literacy, skills, and abilities, supplies the motive power to scale that ladder.

     Since economic development means the creation of wealth, there will be several groups that look for self interest. The owners of capital want to increase their holdings. The intermediaries like political leaders, managers, and operatives will like to increase their personal wealth, influence, and control. Those who have the negotiating advantage may attempt to influence the value systems of recipients. Since mankind is not perfect in terms of their motives, ethics, and values, national economic development efforts may not automatically translate into social development. Indians at the bottom of the pyramid will have to be vigilant. The greatest strength they have is the democratic right, which they should use wisely, carefully, and judiciously. They have three imperatives: 1) Allow revolutionary accomplishments through knowledge-based meritocracy, 2) Demand an equitable share in the benefits of development so that generations of citizens will gain great opportunities, and 3) Choose leadership with foresight and integrity to carry out the nation’s assigned mission.

     Indira Hirway says, “[The rich] are bound to resist this, particularly when they are dominant in village panchayats, which have the major task of planning and implementing the programme. On the other hand, the NREGA [National Rural Employment Guarantee Act] is a demand-driven programme, the success of which depends largely on the demand made by the poor. And since the poor are weak, scattered and unorganised, they lack collective strength to demand work by way of right. What needs to be ensured, therefore, is that the planning under the EGS [Employment Guarantee Scheme] is sound. Sound planning does not mean listing works based on the demand for assets by people. It means a sound long-term plan prepared on the basis of long-term needs of the local economy, in consultation with experts at the village and district levels; multi-level planning as and when necessary; and dovetailing of works with ongoing programmes to pool and use all available resources to supplement and complement each other.” [42]

     Siddharth Dube states, “A major cause of the desperate state of rural India today is that generations of political leaders have refused to accept that equity and prosperity across our largely agrarian society are a must for India to progress.” [43]

 The Goal State and the Choosers

     With a starting GDP of about $902 billion (in 2005), India has to move to a goal GDP of $37 trillion (41.4 times the initial level) to become a truly developed nation. At the same time, the country has to create over 424 million knowledge (and other skilled and able) workers as seen in Table 3. Capping it all, the nation has a delicate job of moving 64 percent of the people currently toiling in agricultural fields away from their occupations into a variety of knowledge intensive careers through education and training. In this context, the key question is: Who should be making the choices? Working out of the nation’s capital, it is impossible for a democratically elected government and its central planning arm (the Planning Commission) to bring such a massive shift. Devolving the responsibility and authority to states will of course be a great improvement. Pratap Bhanu Mehta [44] writes, “Some of the arguments for smaller states apply across the board generally: in large states there are often too many sub-regional disparities that get glossed over by treating the state as a sacrosanct unit. There is the possibility that citizens of smaller states have more homogeneous preferences that make for more effective collective action.” Although Dr. Mehta may have a valid point about smaller states relative to bigger states, in a country of over a billion people with culture, tradition, and history that are thousands of years old, the disparities will remain unless planning for development is delegated to the lowest level, such as a district, a CD Block, and a panchayat, with three sixty degrees of collaboration and cooperation. Being a democracy, India has the political framework to delegate the planning function to lower levels. Since panchayat level planning gives people a large measure of control over developmental choices, it may have the same impact as dividing the country into smaller states while simultaneously minimizing the administrative overhead.

Part 2: Planning to Become a Developed Country

Planning is Key to Development

     The Indian constitution, together with recent amendments, has called for a very proactive planning role for the elected representatives at the panchayat level. “Article 40 of the Constitution which enshrines one of the Directive Principles of State Policy lays down that the State shall take steps to organise village panchayats and endow them with such powers and authority as may be necessary to enable them to function as units of self-government.” [45] According to Shalini and Goel. [46] “… constitution of District Planning Committees (DPC) by the States has been made mandatory as per the Article 243ZD of the Indian Constitution inserted through the 74th Amendment.” According to these authors, the DPC’s are expected to consolidate the plans prepared by the panchayats and municipalities in the district and to prepare a plan for the district. These committees are also expected to prepare a district level strategic plan. They envisaged a coordinated plan and execution of development projects by the various developmental agencies operating in the district as it called on the representatives to “devise suitable strategies for the development of the district.”

     The Planning Commission of India chaired by the Prime Minister is the central planning body in India. While it has been doing exceptional work as a central body that sets the direction for Indian economic development, it is impossible to expect one central agency to plan, and monitor the development of a country with over a billion people. It can indeed play a great role as the conductor and coordinator of various locally generated plans by giving guidance to local planners and to synthesize their plans harmoniously into a national strategic plan. Of course, the big picture can be seen only by the planning commission. Furthermore, planning functions necessary for national economic issues impinging on international relations, such as defense, foreign aid, and international trade have to be dealt by this Commission.

     T. N. Srinivasan, Samuel C. Park Jr. Professor of Economics at Yale University, writes in The Hindu Business Online, “The Planning Commission was established in March 1950. There was then a consensus across the political spectrum on the need for planning for national development and for a dominant role for the state in the economy.” [47] Professor Srinivasan goes on to say, “With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and central planning going out of fashion even earlier, the Planning Commission and its role have become all but anachronistic.” Srinivasan suggests a reconstitution of the planning Commission, “ … since economy-wide planning has lost its relevance, while public investment has not, the Planning Commission should be reconstituted as a Fund for Public Investment (FPI) for both the Centre and States, with the State and Central governments as shareholders.” One may concede that centralized planning as in the former Soviet Union is out of fashion and counterproductive. But the fact that the United States, the citadel of free market, and its capitalist corporations do strategic planning suggests that planning is necessary and has benefits. Plans are very likely to benefit Indian people and national development by eliminating unnecessary duplication of efforts and wasteful and luxurious allocations through transparency.

     It was stated during the introduction of the 73^rd and 74^th Amendments to the Constitution of India, [48] “devolution by the State Legislature of powers and responsibilities upon the Municipalities with respect to preparation of plans for economic development and social justice, and for the implementation of development schemes as may be required to enable them to function as institutions of self-government …” On the Committee for district planning.- “There  shall   be constituted  in every State at the district level a District  Planning Committee to consolidate the plans prepared by the Panchayats and the Municipalities in the district and to prepare a  draft  development plan for the district as a whole.” In a subsequent article, The Southasian was critical of further amendments that would dilute the 73^rd and 74^th amendments. [49] A Harvard study group [50] analyzing health issues also called on the state government to “develop local planning” as it would assist in better healthcare. While discussing various measures to bring justice to the development of the Telangana region, C.H. Hanumantha Rao, Chairman, Centre for Economic and Social Studies, Hyderabad [51] writes in The Hindu, that the state should “constitute regional planning committees consisting of elected representatives as well as experts.” In lieu of detailed plans and a thorough deliberation by local people and elected representatives, unfortunately, state leaders and planning commission appear to come to ad hoc budgetary approvals as chronicled in various newspaper reports. [52]

     The former Chief Minister of the State of Andhra Pradesh and the current Member of Parliament (MP) stated at a meeting of local elected representatives and officials of the district, [53] “rural development was a very big ministry and there was vast scope to get more funds under Prime Minister's Grameena Sadak Yojana, Indira Awas Yojana and old age pensions.” This is another example of mere opportunism (note the phrase, “more funds”) as central projects engage in doling out and spending funds without an initial grassroots level planning for development projects originated at the local level.

     A report on the web site of the Centre for Science and Environment [54] states, “most of the states have failed to set up district planning committees (DPC’s), a mandatory requirement to avail funds under the scheme [Backward Regions Grant Fund (BRGF)]. Funds will be transferred to the district directly from the ministry based on district development plans drawn by panchayats and DPCs, and approved by state governments.” [55]

     The important conclusion one arrives at is that the ministries and the planning commission bring down several disparate schemes to the local level rather than encourage and persuade the development of comprehensive local plans. They may be working at cross purposes. For example, in backward districts with scarcity of water resources, agricultural developments may not be the right solution at all. A proper plan may take advantage of the situation and circumstances and completely abandon such unproductive and unprofitable schemes in those areas. On the contrary, the farming and farm laborer communities, of their own volition, may choose a plan to redirect available funds to train local people into the new work force required by a developed India. Such a possibility can be discovered only if comprehensive local planning is undertaken with due guidance from the higher levels of government.

     The central government launches myriad schemes from the nation’s capital without realizing that such remotely controlled initiatives are top heavy and their effectiveness at the local level could be miniscule. [56] On the other hand, a holistic approach based on local development might improve the efficacy of both planning and overall development. Of course, besides funding, the central government should provide other resources, such as knowledge, guidance, and tools for local plans as the former is far more endowed with financial, managerial, and knowledge resources than the panchayats.

     Bibek Debroy [57] points out in an Op-Ed column in the Indian Express, that the UPA [United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre] has eight so-called flagship programmes: Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA), Mid-Day Meal Scheme, Rajiv Gandhi Drinking Water Mission, Total Sanitation Campaign, National Rural Health Mission, Integrated Child Development Services, National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, and Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission. Then there is Bharat Nirman, Debroy says. He wonders whether any new flagships are being launched.
     Once plans are developed by planners, coordinated by policy makers (say the IAS officers), and approved by political leaders, there is need for program execution officers, program managers, and project managers [58] in India as opposed to asking Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officers to manage development programs and projects. At the district and panchayat level, trained program and project managers may be able to monitor, manage, and report on projects better than the current set up.
     Commenting on the 2006-2007 budget, Laveesh Bhandari [59] says, “Rajiv Gandhi’s famous statement that only 15 paisa out of 100 [15 percent] reaches the poor has since been supplemented by many studies reporting eventual percolation to the intended beneficiaries ranging from 5 to 50 per cent.” Bhandari goes on to say, “the only good way to measure their success is to ask the beneficiaries whether and how they have benefited.” “Many mistakenly believe that this is why it takes many months to get the results. However, the real reason for the delay typically, is poor planning and logistics, the inability to use new technologies, and unfocused design of the evaluation exercise.”
     It is reasonable to expect that local level planning and monitoring will address some of the leakages of funds. Web based planning and project monitoring tools will be essential to maintain currency, accuracy, and accountability. These aspects are addressed in the Strategic Planning section later on in this white paper.
     It is well chronicled that Andhra Pradesh “… developed a twenty-year plan for the state called VISION-2020.” [60] “… the Hon’ble Chief Minister Shri N. Chandrababu Naidu launched a comprehensive effort to achieve poverty alleviation, economic development and social transformation in the region through participatory planning, implementation, monitoring and control of resource application beginning at the grass root level of village, touching upon the other intermediate nodes of local self-government structure, culminating at the district administration level.” But the execution of the VISION-2020 programs suffered as the development activities were carried out by various departments concerning both short term and long term plans from the state capital. According to this report, “The methods used in developing policies and plans and establishing goals and objectives for the Villages, Panchayats, Mandal and the Constituency became easy to comprehend to even rural populace.” It is interesting to note in this report the phrase “establishing goals and objectives for the villages,” but not by the villagers.
     Writing in the Indian Express, Coomi Kapoor [61] points out that India tried to attack malnutrition with schemes like the midday meal and Integrated Child Development Service (ICDS), while the solutions lay in holistic treatment of the problem. Kapoor also points out, “some eighty per cent of the budgetary allocation of Rs 4543 crore is spent on the staff salaries.”
     Dr. M. Ramakrishna Reddy [62] writes, “The centralised exercise of drawing up plans and devolving resources to the states on more or less uniform pattern on certain criteria set forth for the purpose has not been conducive to meet the felt needs of all the regions of the country.” He continues, “It is astounding to observe that a population of the size of 361 million almost trebled itself in the next fifty years to scale a stupendous 1,027 million or 1.027 billion, at the turn of the century!” It may be noted once again that local populations have had neither a say in the plan formulation nor did they have an opportunity to debate the actions and consequences.
     Dr. Saroja Rama Rao [63] says, “The Planning Commission has been insisting for improvement of Local Area Planning under 73rd and 74th Amendment of Constitution of India.” Again, it is noteworthy that they are not asking for planning by the local people.
     The Andhra Pradesh state organization charts [64] indicate that planning for the local communities (Panchayati Raj) is done at the state level and not at the local level by the communities themselves. A news report [65] says, “The Annual Plan for Andhra Pradesh for the year 2006-07 was finalized at a meeting between Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, Shri Montek Singh Ahluwalia and Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy.” It does not appear from this news item that the one-year plan is a part of any long range strategic plan. It also appears that guidance that “Panchayati Raj Institutions should be revived,” is being given after the one-year plan is approved and financed rather than during the plan formulation. Panchayati Raj Institutions should be entrusted with the task of developing their plans in concert with higher level governments and then executing them in a collaborative fashion.
     Stressing the need to plan from village level at the District Planning Committee meeting in Srikakulam, Mr. Yarrannaidu, MP, wanted Telugu copies of the Act to be distributed to leaders at the grassroots level. Since agriculture, education, health and poverty alleviations were the priority items for the 11th Plan, he said that these should be kept in mind while preparing district level plan. [66]
     Zilla Parishad Chairperson and Chairman of District Planning Council T. Kavitha said at the DPC meeting that decentralisation of planning would help people as the local officials and elected representatives would prepare plans based on their priorities and villages and municipalities would get the required funds and would have the freedom to spend funds according to their priorities. She further added that the plans, prepared gram panchayat-wise, should be submitted to the State and Central governments in due time. She urged the officials to prepare village-wise plans in consultation with the local elected representatives. [67]
     Tribals from Borra gram panchayat have emerged triumphant with the Government issuing orders for shelling down 20 per cent of the net profit from the million-year-old Borra caves for the development of villages in the periphery. This arrangement is an example of local people making their resources available for the tourism industry and benefiting from it for local development. [68]
     Prabhat Patnaik writes, “WE observe two simultaneously existing paradoxes these days: first, even as planning, for all practical purposes, is being given a burial at the national level, with the eleventh plan document, whatever its worth, not even ready six months into the plan period, there is much emphasis, at the level of the same central government and the same Planning Commission, on detailed planning at the district level. Secondly, even as there is enormous centralisation of powers and resources away from the state governments and towards the Centre, there is simultaneously much emphasis, again at the level of the same central government and the same Planning Commission, on decentralisation of powers and resources away from the state governments towards the panchayats and urban local bodies. Thus, one paradoxical combination, of “no-planning” with “excessive-planning”, is matched by another paradoxical combination, of “centralization” with “decentralization”.” Patnaik goes on to say, “They have little capacity to do meaningful planning or resource management on the scale they are being asked to do. As more resources are put into their hands, and as more planning responsibilities are entrusted to them, they are forced willy-nilly into accepting the services of private consultants for fulfilling these tasks.” [69]
     Patnaik’s points should persuade us to develop tools that make planning easier. I argue in this paper that web based information technology tools with templates should transform planning into making selections of parameters and values based on the best judgments of local representatives of people. The key point to note is that the planning by the Center, the states, the districts, and the panchayats should be a collaborative process. Utilizing the help of specialists and software applications in the planning process is in no way abdicating the responsibility of elected representatives of the people at various levels.
     A brainchild of Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly’s former Speaker K.R. Suresh, a pilot project was started to assign management graduates for assisting legislators in finalizing their constituency plans. [70] This project may be a good beginning to move towards panchayat planning. Of course, as stated earlier in this white paper, there is need for collaboration among various panchayats and various hierarchical levels while the plans are developed and executed.
     United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) [71] was a program, which dealt with strengthening decentralization and had three objectives: 1) Promote effective community management, 2) Strengthen local governance institutions, and 3) Support effective devolution of power. This program called for “… more effective social mobilisation, improved access to information, and greater sensitivity among development administrators.” It also required that the poor and disadvantaged groups have a voice in the setting of priorities and in the design of programmes. Efforts must be made to protect the rights of the least advantaged and to ensure effective participation by all groups. Elected officials of local bodies need to be better informed, better aware of their rights and responsibilities, and more capable of taking decisions. At the same time, it pointed out the essentiality of proper systems of monitoring, reporting, accountability, transparency and efficiency in the use of resources.
     The main challenges identified by this programme were:

·         Making local governance bodies more representative, effective, and equity-oriented

·         Developing local area planning systems that reflect the priorities of the community, particularly the poor

·         Developing local capacity to enhance the quality and availability of basic social services

·         Setting up monitoring and information-sharing systems to ensure that resources meant for development are used effectively

·         Coordinating activities of civil society organisations and elected local bodies, and

·         Strengthening operational capabilities of local bodies.

     Effective community management especially at the local level is critical for improving the quality and cost effectiveness of basic social services. Community members who are aware of their needs and informed about the availability of resources are more capable of effective monitoring and ensuring accountability of the service providers. Strengthening local governance institutions requires developing decision-making skills among members, introducing more effective systems of monitoring, creating transparency, ensuring full participation, and strengthening accountability.

     “Drawing on the approach to the Eleventh Five Year Plan, the overarching goal of the new UNDAF [72], to be framed around the MDGs [Millennium Development Goals], is "promoting social, economic and political inclusion" with the objective of ‘capacity development at local level to improve the quality of life for the most disadvantaged women and girls.’”

     As reported on the Ministry Of Human Resource Development, Department Of Education web site [73], the population of scheduled castes (SC) and scheduled tribes (ST) (1991 Census data) was 206 million or accounting for nearly 25 percent of the population.  Furthermore, 20 percent of that population was between the ages of 0-6 years. That means over 40 million SC and ST population will be in the age group 15-21 in 2006. As stated in an earlier section, a developed India in forty years will be counting on these people as knowledge workers. The best strategy is to involve the SC and ST groups actively in the planning process and give them a share in the ownership of the plans and their execution.

Pulling Asunder

     The governments of India and West Bengal had found it difficult to move several thousand people from their strong attachment to land despite the needs of economic and industrial developments and the allure of future knowledge based and skill intensive jobs. [74] Since they are finding it difficult even as they get out of the gate, it is unimaginable that these governments can convince several hundred million people (64 percent of the people in agriculture) to move progressively to the promised knowledge fields in the next forty years. In all these situations, the main impediment is that the decision makers and planners are situated either in Delhi or in a state capital (e.g. Kolkata) but not in a local council (panchayat). It is essential to understand that in all these cases, the affected people had neither a say in the decision making process (plan formulation) nor a seat at the negotiating table. In a democracy, since governments are for the people and by the people, they should make decisions for themselves, of course with expert technical guidance as and when applicable. This is possible only when planning and execution of plans or local parts of a bigger plan take place locally. For example, if a local government of the geographic area that included Singur in West Bengal has a plan to have an automobile plant in their locality and reached an amicable understanding with the Tatas, the events might have turned out to be positively different. Perhaps, a local council would have determined to build a residential community with the auto plant at its core and with many ancillary industries and support services for the community. A thriving community would have educated and trained willing children of local people to staff the needs of the evolving knowledge enterprise. The community might have seen the divestiture of their land as an investment in the future of their children. Despite the bitter experience of Singur, the essential lesson that planning and certain decision making should be devolved to the local communities does not appear to have been learnt by the governments so far.

     Referring to a somewhat similar case, Jaithirth Rao [75] says, ‘The tribals can use their income to educate their children and move to occupations and habitations of their choice. Giving them a fixed asset like land gives them no choice but to be stuck there and educate their children in non-existent or ill-run government schools.” The essence is choice ¾ who makes it and for whom. Any decision making, planning, and prioritization from Delhi is like basing micro-decisions on a view from a radio telescope. On the other hand, isolated planning at the village level is akin to microscopic view. Both these views have drawbacks individually. The best approach is to take multiple views and synthesize them with a collaborative process. Fareed Zakaria [76] said, "Change in India can only come from bottom up, not top down.”

     An Andhra Pradesh state announcement [77] says, “The State Government will declare the SEZ as a local authority, which shall replace the existing Panchayats. The SEZ Company will act as SEZ Managers in Designing, Planning, Financing, Building, Operating and Marketing the Zones to investors. These developers (herein after referred to as SEZ Company) will act as SEZ Managers in Designing, Planning, Financing, Building, Operating and Marketing the zones to investors.” Once again, this is an unfortunate example where local panchayats, whose land is taken away, are also taken out of the planning process. The general assumption is that the SEZs are highly complex ventures and local panchayat leaders may not be able to operate them. But, in reality and in other circumstances, similar local leaders are elected as MPs and MLAs, become ministers and run national enterprises (sometimes very successfully), such as Indian Railways and other public sector enterprises. Indian government has to give up the father knows best approach! Let the panchayat leaders grow with training wheels to start with!

    Addressing a national workshop on `Urban Reforms Agenda,' M. Rajamani, Mission Director, Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) and Joint Secretary of Municipal & Urban Development Department, Government of India stated, [78] “The Centre has asked States to enact a `community participation law' to introduce area sabhas below ward committees for people's participation at grassroot level and `municipality disclosure law' as mandatory reforms for utilising Mission funds.” Community participation should be at the planning and execution stages so that they are intimately involved during the stage of defining the mission as well as its execution.

     Prime Minister Manmohan Singh launched the Mahatma Gandhi Backward Regions Development Fund (MGBRDF), a $1 billion (Rs.50 billion) project. [79] “Aimed at removing regional imbalances and making the rural poor self-reliant, the scheme will cover 11 districts in Assam. That would include all districts where the National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme is being implemented.” The key aspects of this program are “participatory planning, decision-making and implementation and monitoring.”

     Velamur Rajagopal, former Director, Central Plantation Crops Research Institute [80] informed the newspaper The Hindu, “Tirupati can be potential coconut-based industrial hub.” because about 104,000 hectares was under coconut plantation in the State with an average yield of about 11,99,311 nuts. This is important information from the point of view of development. The various communities where these plantations are situated have to consider this potential for a coconut-based business in their comprehensive plans. Of course, there is the need for a seat at the planning table (or in a conference call) for technical experts like Rajagopal as they bring the knowledge and can also effect horizontal coordination among the various communities with similar interests.

Diverse paths but Same Goal

     Peoples seek political independence so that they can make decisions for themselves and control their own destinies. Peoples who feel that they are not getting their fair share, demand separate states. [81] Economies of scale dictate optimal sized groupings for governments. Currently, the Planning Commission of India [82] based in Delhi is “… charged with the responsibility of making assessment of all resources of the country, augmenting deficient resources, formulating plans for the most effective and balanced utilisation of resources and determining priorities.” Perhaps, what is required is collaborative planning with several levels participating in the planning process by bringing in different perspectives and ownerships to the process.

     Ahluwalia [83] says, “Continuation of the growth pattern observed in the 1990s, with a region accounting for one third of the population and the largest concentration of poverty deriving very little benefit, while the rest of the country enjoys robust growth, present obvious problems. It will exacerbate regional inequality with further concentration of poverty in a particular region, which is surely a recipe for political instability. The development strategy for the future must therefore ensure that the slow growing states accelerate to a respectable growth of GSDP [Gross State Domestic Product] …”

     It is becoming clear that for political stability and for a Developed State status, similar to a developed country status, a country may have to set the same goal state for all states within the country. Further by induction, they should set a Developed region or area status for each and every geographical subset within a state. Of course, such a strategy might mean that those areas, which are currently lagging in economic development, will have to make greater strides than others who are ahead in the development process. It may be possible that they may either set a slightly longer time horizon or work harder and smarter to reach the common goal. They may even be willing to attract meritorious people to settle into their regions. Here is again an example from the US whose immigration policies are geared towards attracting highly educated and skilled people. In any event, it is essential that economic and social development goals and the means to accomplish those goals be set and strategic planning undertaken by collective and collaborative groups rather than an arbitrary and single point of authority in Delhi.

      Ahluwalia [84] continues, “With liberalization of investment control and much stronger pressure of competition, including especially competition from imports, investment size began to be determined on economic grounds and location also was decided to a much greater extent on the basis of economic considerations. It is very likely that in practice this led to a reallocation of investment in favour of states perceived as having better infrastructure facilities, better labour skills and work culture, and a more investor friendly environment. The resulting reallocation of investment in the post-reforms period could lead to a substantial increase in investment in the better performing states, and a consequent increase in their growth rate, with a corresponding reduction in investment in less well endowed or well governed states and a deceleration in their growth.” This is where strategic planning, periodic monitoring, and replanning come in handy. As people realize that they are lagging their neighbors in development, they will elect more capable leaders (MPs and MLAs) and demand better plans and execution.

     In his interview with The Indian Express Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta, Economist and writer and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz [85] said in the context of rural infrastructure, “It is the delivery that is more important than the money.” He cited the “question of paying teachers who don’t teach, who don’t even show up in classrooms.” He stressed the critical nature of investments in rural infrastructure, like roads and irrigation. Obviously, when planning and the execution of those plans is handed over to local communities, the teachers will be expected to be responsive, show up, and shape up as they will be under the local microscope and micro-scalpel.

     The foregoing argument does not mean that the goals of individual regions are necessarily identical in terms of production of goods and services. For example, it is possible that one area may focus on certain metals manufacturing while another may decide on research into pharmaceuticals. Each geographic area develops in industrial and commercial areas where it is stronger or “well endowed.” But in the end, balance has to be achieved in terms of most people moving to the middle of the Malsow’s need ladder. People of any region, be it a state or a district, or a village, are very unlikely to choose or accept that they be consigned to the bottom of the ladder. Those people have a right to seek their due place at the middle of the Maslow’s hierarchy but they have an obligation and perhaps a right to prepare a strategic plan to achieve their goals and execute the same. Progress is not handed to them on a gold platter but opportunities are given so that they make considered and deliberate choices and harvest the fruits of their own labor.

Stakeholders in the Development Process

     Beginning with the government of India, there are many major and minor players who could make India into a developed nation. The stakeholders are: 1) ministers, elected representatives, namely members of the parliament (MP), members of the legislative assemblies in states (MLA), and other people elected to local governments - panchayats, 2) leaders of government, private businesses, and industries, 3) leaders of non-government organizations (NGO’s), 4) others such as knowledge leaders, innovators, and citizens in general. Since these groups are responsible (for and on behalf of the entire population) for the growth of India, they should lead the planning process and participate in it in various capacities. These groups have diverse, sometimes congruent and at other times conflicting stakes and interests. For example, a member of the parliament is responsible for the development of the country but is expected by his or her constituents to seek special development of his or her constituency. Similarly, a member of the legislative assembly has a dual role. By participating in the planning process, these representatives will be able to develop optimal planning scenarios. Collaboration between various levels of representatives is the key to this balance and optimality.

     In an ideal and desirable situation, plans are developed at the national, state, district, and panchayat levels. Higher level planners provide guidance to lower level planners in terms of resource mobility, technical knowledge, emerging opportunities, and hidden pitfalls. Plans are coordinated between resource suppliers and receivers as well as between neighboring or impacting constituencies. This may call for a great degree of collaboration in planning. A brief description of Collaborative Planning is presented in Appendix 1.

     It is expected that there will be considerable iteration and interactivity initially as well as periodically between planners at various levels. But, it is expected that the process will settle down after a few iterations and thereafter, the planning process and the execution of plans will move on until they are perturbed by external events. An initial target list of sub-goals for a constituency may be obtained by dividing the national goals in proportion to the population. In the second stage, the rate of progress towards the goals can be adjusted to accommodate the degree of advancement or backwardness of a constituency. There may be negotiated exchanges of resources and benefits. Certain means and goals may be changed based on the suitability or otherwise of a constituency for a given business or industry. For example, a constituency may be highly suitable for coal mining but neither for agriculture nor for fishing. A hydroelectric dam may require the sacrifice of land and habitation from a constituency to yield greater benefits in another. In such a situation, a method of sharing the benefits and compensation for the losses can be negotiated between the two constituencies as part of the planning process. Some constituents may decide to migrate to other constituencies in their pursuit of economic gains in cases where local constituency fails to offer them their desired individual development.

     As stated earlier, it is the small, medium, and big private businesses that ultimately bring large scale economic development, create jobs, and produce goods and services for the citizens. Hence business leaders will play key roles in the planning and then the execution of their business plans. A business leader might like to invest in an automobile plant, or a power plant, or a business college. The location of such a business will have certain impacts, which may be considered as positive or negative by the leaders representing the local people. National, state, and local leaders will perhaps welcome a venture based on its positive impacts and implications to their communities. When the local people are involved in the planning process, the plans are likely to be harmonious to peoples’ lives and are highly likely to be welcomed. Realizing that the people of the region and through them the district, the state, and the country will benefit in some proportion, the plans are likely to receive approval. Local planners, in coordination with higher level planners, are likely to market their locations to attract a variety of businesses knowing that they have a need to develop in order to increase their own Gross Domestic Local Product (GDLP), the GDSP (or GSDP), and the GDP of the nation in that order.

Setting Plan Goals Progressively Down the Hierarchy

     In earlier sections, I discussed the need for a long range strategic plan to get to a developed India. In this section, I will discuss how the national goals are translated to lower levels in the hierarchy. In order to illustrate the process, we will take examples of setting goals for a state, a district, and a panchayat. The state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) in the south is a state with a large rural population and is also developing well in technology and higher education.

     Andhra Pradesh (AP) State has a population of 76 million. [86] AP State economic survey presents information useful for planning activities. The GSDP (or GDSP) is expected to touch Rs.2,02,117 Crores (i. e. approximately $400 million). Per Capita Income at 1999-2000 prices for the year 2006-07 is estimated at Rs.22,521 as against the quick estimate of Rs.21,277 for the year 2005-06 registering a growth of 5.85%. Gross Fixed Capital Formation has shown a growth of 17.07% during 2004-05 and as percentage of GSDP, it works out to 24.18. The Sectoral composition of GSDP in AP during 2006-07 is Rs.53,859 Crores (26.6%) primary sector, Rs.43,611 Crores (21.6%) secondary sector and Rs.1,04,647 Crores (51.8%) for tertiary sector. [87]

     One of the northern districts in Andhra Pradesh state is the Vizianagaram district with a population of 22.5 lakhs (2.25 million) according to the census of the year 2001. [88] As an initial step in setting the goals for the state and the district, I prorated the Indian goals (refer to Table 3) and generated Table 4. Generating a table of this type will have two critical effects. Firstly, the local political leaders and citizens of the district of Vizianagaram will realize ¾ more appropriately, visualize ¾  that in a developed India, they will have their fair share of knowledge workers and economic gains. Secondly but more importantly, they are expected to realize that they need to develop a plan and execute it to accomplish their goals. Nobody hands them the development on a silver platter! They can begin their journey knowing their goal state and their sub-goals by selecting an appropriate path. According to a report in The Hindu [89], there is opposition to sand mining on the beaches in the district. Local fishermen are apprehensive of losing their catch while extraction of ilmenite from the sands is a strong industry driver. The local community and the industry will have to look at alternative scenarios, conduct trade-off studies, and develop inputs for choices in a local plan. They have to consider their current livelihood as well as their targets for future development for their children and grand children.

Table 4: Projecting Employment in Andhra Pradesh State and Vizianagaram District in a Developed India.

Full-time and part-time Employees (Thousands)	Developed India		US for comparison	Developed Andhra Pradesh State	Developed Vizianagaram  District
Industry Title	Thousands	Percent	Thousands	Thousands	Thousands
All industries	423,654	100.00	141,218	32,198	932
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting	4,419	1.04	1,473	336	10
Mining	1,692	0.40	564	129	4
Utilities	1,662	0.39	554	126	4
Construction	22,701	5.36	7,567	1,725	50
Manufacturing	42,984	10.15	14,328	3,267	95
Wholesale trade	17,550	4.14	5,850	1,334	39
Retail trade	47,289	11.16	15,763	3,594	104
Transportation and warehousing	13,137	3.10	4,379	998	29
Information	9,237	2.18	3,079	702	20
Finance and insurance	18,303	4.32	6,101	1,391	40
Real estate and rental and leasing	6,621	1.56	2,207	503	15
Professional and business services	52,152	12.31	17,384	3,964	115
Educational services	8,733	2.06	2,911	664	19
Health care and social assistance	45,063	10.64	15,021	3,425	99
Arts, entertainment, and recreation	5,943	1.40	1,981	452	13
Accommodation and food services	33,081	7.81	11,027	2,514	73
Other services, except government	20,703	4.89	6,901	1,573	46
Government	72,384	17.09	24,128	5,501	159

     During the iterative plan development process, district planners might realize that their district is not well suited for certain industries and professions, and decide to exchange certain targets for some other professions and industries. In coordination with the state (through their MLAs) and with the Centre (with liaison help from their MP’s), they can look for technical guidance and resource help. They can also market their strengths, again collaboratively with the state and the centre, and seek private businesses to locate in the district. Similarly, they can work with Self Help Groups (SHG’s) and international agencies. It is hoped that local leaders will resort to learning the art and science of planning, gaining the skills of marketing their capabilities to investors, and practicing responsible governance as opposed to bothersome and destructive demonstrations in the streets (like Bandhs, Rasta rokos, and Dharnas).

     Data for a panchayat in this district is not readily available. Hence, I will take a typical panchayat with a population of 16,000. As an initial step in setting the expectations and goals for a typical panchayat in the state and the district, I prorated once again the Indian and AP state goals based on population and generated Table 5. This process and Table 5 show to the people and the leaders of the panchayat that in a developed India and a developed panchayat, they (actually their children) will be in these advanced occupations. If we leave the discussion at this stage, academics and political scientists will accuse us of central planning and dictating to people what they and children will do. That is not the intention. As a first step in the iterative planning, these are the goals. With guidance from the Indian, State of Andhra Pradesh, and Vizianagaram District leaders, the panchayat leaders will be expected to consider which sectors are appropriate for their panchayat. They will augment Table 5 accordingly and come up with their goals. Hopefully, now they can see their bright future rather than stare at a blank paper! I hope that it will also dawn on them that they also have a responsibility to work for the goals they set for themselves.

Table 5: Projected Employment in a typical panchayat in Andhra Pradesh State in a Developed India.

Full-time and part-time employees (Thousands)
	Developed Panchayat in Andhra Pradesh State
Industry Title	Number of people
All industries	6700
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting	70
Mining	27
Utilities	26
Construction	359
Manufacturing	680
Wholesale trade	278
Retail trade	748
Transportation and warehousing	208
Information	146
Finance and insurance	289
Real estate and rental and leasing	105
Professional and business services	825
Educational services	138
Health care and social assistance	713
Arts, entertainment, and recreation	94
Accommodation and food services	523
Other services, except government	327
Government	1145

Strategic Planning Process

     According to Ackoff [90], strategic planning starts with analyzing the current state of an enterprise. The next step is the setting up of an end state. The end state reflects the desired future state of the enterprise. The end state of the enterprise will have certain desired values for its attributes and characteristics. The means or paths and processes that will enable the enterprise to move from its current state (attributes and characteristics) to the final (desired) state in a given time period are then identified and prescribed. This step is followed by an analysis of the required resources and implementation schemes. Briefly, these steps constitute the planning process. For example, creating 300 million knowledge workers in forty years may be set as a goal for the nation. Intermediate goals for the number of knowledge workers will be set at various points of time during the forty year period. The goal of growing Indian GDP to about $37 trillion in forty years will be at the top, which can be subdivided in terms of sectoral contributions to that GDP level while satisfying Basic Human Needs of all citizens. This subdivision can be done through a rigorous decomposition of goals. Figure 5 shows schematically the process for developing the subgoals.

Figure 5: Schematic of the Process for Developing Subgoals of a Strategic Plan.

     A hypothetical CD Block with a population of 100,000 people will have 42,000 total employed in various occupations (the rest of them being children and old people who may not constitute the working population). 27,000 people (sixty five percent of the 42,000) will be toiling in agricultural labor if India and this CD block do not attain the developed status. On the other hand in a developed state only one percent of the employed people i.e. 420 people will be in Agriculture in the goal state. The strategic plan of the CD block will set a goal of moving 26,580 (i.e. 27,000 – 420) agricultural workers from the initial state to other than agricultural occupations during the plan period of forty years [90A], This goal can be combined with the CD block’s other goals of creating appropriate number of people trained in various industrial trades, educated as college graduates in liberal arts, and so on. The planners have to employ some means to accomplish these transitions. They should choose to launch a number of industrial training institutes, liberal arts colleges, and professional and engineering colleges in the CD block. Of course, the CD block will have to coordinate with state and central planners and perhaps private individuals or organizations so that the chosen goals and selected initiatives are included in the plans of all parties (stakeholders) concerned. It takes collaboration and competition to accomplish the goals people have set for themselves knowing their environment, resources, capabilities, aspirations, and fortitude.

Connecting needs, products and services, and industries

     Most needs of people are satisfied by businesses in the agricultural, industrial, and other sectors. Businesses also provide jobs to people so that they earn wages and salaries with which they enter the market place to buy the needed and wanted products and services. However, it is possible that even the basic needs (roti, kapada, pani, bijli, makan, and padai) of certain citizens of a panchayat, CD Block, and district cannot be satisfied by the market place directly as these people lack the purchasing power owing to unemployment or under-employment. These people come under the government’s social welfare net and successive levels of government take the responsibility to support them in their needs. The panchayat planners should estimate and include in their plans the resources needed to support people below the poverty level (BPL) so that they can assess financial requirements and look for resources and sources. Panchayat planners should also look at innovative initiatives to attract new businesses into their localities so that the gross income of the people in the panchayat increases, income of the panchayat improves, and the number of people BPL decreases progressively to zero. By estimating local needs of products and services, panchayat planners can set targets for local production and imports from or exports to other locales.

     In the US, security services (police) are provided at the level of the county, the state, and the federal governments. Currently in India, police (i.e. security service) is essentially a state function. It is possible that panchayats and districts might be willing to adopt the US model and raise their own security forces (either shared or fully owned) (police) so that such forces are more knowledgeable of local environment as well as are more responsive to local needs. Although private security services provide for some specific safety and security needs of people, security is generally considered to be a governmental function.

     Unlike in the developed countries, in India and other developing countries the governments provide for most of the healthcare needs of people. It is generally believed that private businesses are more efficient and cost conscious, especially in a free market. The point here is not to debate the merits and demerits of private versus public service providers but to point out that healthcare service needs are planned and their provision is negotiated with providers.
     Niall Fitzgerald and Mandy Cormack [91] describe that the role of business in society is to innovate and deliver products and services to use resources efficiently so that value is created and to conduct operations so that they are performed profitably and accepted by society. Figure 6 shows the Maslow Need Ladder and the products and services that satisfy the needs of people by various industries and businesses. If people have the means to buy products and services, they acquire them directly from the businesses i.e. the market. Governments and philanthropic organizations intercede and try to satisfy the needs of those who do not have the means to satisfy their directly from the market. Figure 7 shows which type of needs are satisfied by the categories of businesses and industries. Figure 8 shows generic and specific models of how people, as employees, contribute their effort into businesses to create products, which are, in turn, used to satisfy the needs of people as customers. The wages and salaries paid by businesses to employees and managers make the people self reliant in satisfying their needs. In modern societies, individual families neither produce every thing they consume nor consume every thing they produce. There are considerable exchanges across geographic (village, panchayat, district, state, national, and international) boundaries. These realities have to be factored when planning is undertaken at any level.

Figure 6: Provider Pyramid: Basic Needs Are Satisfied by Various Industries and Businesses.

Figure 7: Provider Pyramid: Basic Needs and the Industries That Satisfy Them.

Figure 8: Generic and Specific Models Showing How Businesses Satisfy Human Needs.

Indian Demographics of Knowledge Workers

     Urban communities start with an advantage when we talk about development. Most modern amenities are located in urban areas. As I stated earlier, a developed country is characterized by a knowledge based economy. Currently, urban centers are where knowledge centers, viz., colleges, universities, polytechnics, industrial training institutes (ITI), and industrial and corporate houses are located. President Kalam [92] proposed PURA (Providing Urban Amenities in Rural Areas) concept to bring developments to rural communities. Of the anticipated 300 million knowledge workers in a developed India, 210 million will have to come from the current rural communities since 70 percent of the population lives in rural communities. India has 593 districts, 5,564 sub-districts (i.e., Tahsils/Talukas/CD Blocks, etc.) and 5,161 towns. [93] On average therefore, each district could have nearly 350,000 or each sub-district could have nearly 38,000 knowledge workers. Assuming a working life of 40 years for a knowledge worker, each district will have to turn out 8,750 graduates annually (in the steady state). If each college has a capacity to graduate 500 knowledge and skill based professionals annually, there will be 18 colleges in each district. That also computes to nearly 2 colleges in each sub-district. Some of these colleges may be located in a town within a sub-district if the local people so choose and the economics justify it. The magnitude of the knowledge sector (colleges) shows that there will be enormous opportunities for people who want to get an education, while for the communities it is a big challenge to build, equip, and staff numerous colleges. Of course, if each sub-district undertakes the task, they only have to focus on two colleges! With guidance from the State and the Center, it becomes a relatively easily managed task for the local communities. With such a large number of colleges widely spread across the breadth and width of the country, it is important to develop standards for managing the educational institutions to turn out high quality graduates. It will be instructive to learn from the franchising model of running businesses, wherein many franchise operations run individually owned businesses by taking advantage of a well honed business model from a franchisor. [94] Furthermore, by applying the ISO concepts, the quality of college management and operations can be maintained at a high level [95]

     In Table 4, Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are shown in one row. Obviously, this is a major aggregation. This industry sector can be subdivided into its various components as shown in a partial list in Table 6. This later table is based on the US NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) codes, [96] whereas planners in India, the states, the districts, and the panchayats may use the Indian SIC (Standard Industrial Classification) codes [97] if they are comfortable with them.

Table 6: Illustrative Example of NAICS Codes and Titles [98]

2002 NAICS Code	2002 NAICS Title
11	Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
111		Crop Production
1111			Oilseed and Grain Farming
11111				Soybean Farming
111110					Soybean Farming
11112				Oilseed (except Soybean) Farming
111120					Oilseed (except Soybean) Farming
11113				Dry Pea and Bean Farming
111130					Dry Pea and Bean Farming
11114				Wheat Farming
111140					Wheat Farming
11115				Corn Farming
111150					Corn Farming
11116				Rice Farming
111160					Rice Farming
11119				Other Grain Farming
111191					Oilseed and Grain Combination Farming
111199					All Other Grain Farming

(A small subset is shown here.) Refer to Appendix 2 for explanations of SIC and NAICS.

     Table 7 shows US employment distribution by major occupations. [99] Data from this table is very revealing. According to these projections, in a developed India, there will be 145 million people employed in managerial and professional specialty and another 140 million people employed in Technical, sales, and administrative support. The next decade or two offers excellent managerial opportunities for young Indians beginning their careers today. Table 8 shows a distribution of hours worked as they relate to education level. [100] People who have received 12 to 16 years of education have logged a high percentage (79) of hours. It may be noted that 12 years corresponds to a high school diploma, and 16 years represents a bachelor’s degree. Table 9 shows mean hourly earnings for selected occupations in the US shown for selected geographical areas as of April 2000. [101] See end-note (100) about population and employed ratio. 135 million people, i.e. 48% of the US population, were employed in 2000. This will mean that a developed India with a population of 1,000 million people will have 480 million people employed in the various occupations shown in the above table.

Table 7: Employed US Persons By Major Occupation, Average For Year 2000 (In Thousands) And Projected Values For A Developed India.

Occupation	Employed US persons (in thousands)	Percent of Total US employed	Employed persons in a developed India (in thousands)
TOTAL	135,208	100	480,000
Managerial and professional specialty	40,887	30.2	145,000
Executive, administrative, and managerial	19,774	14.6	70,000
Professional specialty	21,113	15.6	75,000
Technical, sales, and administrative support	39,442	29.2	140,000
Technicians and related support	4,385	3.2	15,000
Sales	16,340	12.1	58,000
Administrative support, including clerical	18,717	13.8	66,000
Service occupations	18,278	13.5	65,000
Private household	792	0.6	3,000
Protective service	2,399	1.8	8,600
Service, except private household and protective	15,087	11.2	54,000
Precision production, craft, and repair	14,882	11.0	53,000
Mechanics and repairers	4,875	3.6	17,000
Construction trades	6,120	4.5	22,000
Other precision production, craft, and repair	3,887	2.9	14,000
Operators, fabricators, and laborers	18,319	13.5	65,000
Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors	7,319	5.4	26,000
Transportation and material moving occupations	5,557	4.1	20,000
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers	5,443	4.0	19,000
Farming, forestry, and fishing	3,399	2.5	12,000

Source: Table was generated from data for the year 2000 in Table 10, Employed persons by major occupation, annual averages, 1987-2000 (In thousands) from The Bureau of Labor Statistics an agency within the U.S. Department of Labor. [99]

Table 8: Percent Distribution of All Hours Worked By Men in the Private Business Sector By Years Of Completed Schooling In 1999.

Years of schooling	0-4	5-8	9-11	12	13-15	16	17+
Percent	0.9	3.4	7.4	33.9	26.2	18.9	9.3

Source: Data for this table is obtained from Table 17 in reference at [100]. 

Table 9: Mean Hourly Earnings for Selected Occupations, All Workers, All Industries, Selected Areas, April 2000.

Occupation	New York- Northern New Jersey- Long Island, NY-NJCT- PA
ALL	$21.18
WHITE COLLAR	25.44
Professional specialty and technical	32.30
Engineers, architects, and surveyors	31.03
Mathematical and computer scientists	39.31
Natural scientists	36.39
Health related	28.05
Teachers, college and university	48.35
Librarians, archivists, and curators	32.47
Social scientists and urban planners	31.64
Social, recreation, and religious workers	22.41
Lawyers and judges	47.52
Writers, authors, entertainers, athletes, and professionals, n.e.c.	31.76
Technical	24.33
Executive, administrative, and managerial	34.67
Executives, administrators, and managers	39.93
Management related	26.57
Sales	16.06
Administrative support, including clerical	15.53
BLUE COLLAR	15.48
Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors	11.26
Transportation and material moving	16.21
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers	12.84
SERVICE	14.02

Source: Data abstracted from Table 20 of Reference [101].

     By scrutinizing the data and information in Table 4, the local leaders and people will realize that in the goal state, there can only be 10,000 farming jobs while in an undeveloped economy 600,000 workers would be toiling in the fields lacking the knowledge skills. On the brighter side, the panchayat leaders will be attracted to the opportunity to have 115,000 jobs in the category “professional and business services” and set their goals accordingly. This means that the children of farmers and farm workers of today will have to be oriented towards education leading to those professional careers. Such a prospect should be welcomed by them even though it could be a pleasant surprise for them initially.

     It is very instructive to note that in the state of Kerala, the Planning Board [102] has already mooted a proposal to establish a State Mission Group and to launch a flagship programme to tap non-conventional resources such as thermal, solar, and wind energy along with rural electrification to be executed by the civic bodies. The proposal assumes significance as it comes at a time when the decentralization of power completes a decade. Although this move towards decentralization is a welcome sign, it is essential that all facets of planning are decentralized — not selected segments of a developmental plan developed in a state Capital or in Delhi.

Part 3: Developing a Format for Strategic Planning at the Panchayat Level [103]

Beginning the Planning Process

     India has to begin its development journey from its current state to a developed state. Such a development process requires strategic planning. Ackoff, Finnel, and Gharajedaghi [104] described strategic planning for a corporation’s future. The principles and methods described by Ackoff, et al are equally applicable in developing a strategic plan for a country. It starts with the belief that the future of a country depends on what planners choose and what the leaders do to bring about necessary changes. Planners [105] therefore should choose a desirable future and select or invent ways of accomplishing the chosen future. The planners have to know the country’s current status, which is captured in situation analysis in Ackoff’s method. The chosen future is described in ends planning. Spanning the initial and the final states is a path which is described by means planning. In the case of the economy of a nation, there are thousands of attributes and characteristics that define the sate of the nation. The state of the nation therefore passes through several values for these characteristics. The goal state is what leaders and planners choose it to be. Usually, this decision is arrived at based on the aspirations of the people expressed formally and informally at various forums. As India wanted to become a developed country, those characteristics that define the economic development of the US (or any other developed country, as an example, for that matter) can guide India in its choice of values for the characteristics. Both the characteristics and their values can be modified and augmented by Indian ideas of “development with a human face.” [106]

     The initial and goal states will have several attributes and characteristics with starting and ending values. The paths will determine how these attributes change over time and what forces and factors cause such changes. For example, that 65 percent of the population is dependent on agricultural activities will be in India’s initial state and that only 1 percent of the population can be dependent on such activities may be chosen for the goal state. Planners may make a note of the number of people whose basic needs (roti, kapda, makan, pani, and bijli) are yet to be satisfied and choose an end state where these needs are well satisfied for all those people. Furthermore, development has to take place across all regions, states, and communities in the country. Hence planning has to be carried out concurrently at the national as well as the local levels with effective collaboration and coordination between the plans at various levels. With modern software technologies, like the Wiki tools, [107] and Internet capabilities (Web sites, Webinars, conference calls, and Frequently asked Questions), it is possible to accomplish this planning function collaboratively.

     Akshaya, [108] Kerala Government's e-governance initiative, is all set to implement a pilot project to establish panchayat-level web portals with people's participation in selected panchayats in Kannur in North Kerala with financial and technical assistance from UNESCO. Such panchayat web sites can help in local and national planning efforts.

     A gulf is developing between politicians and bureaucrats on the one hand and the people on the other. The former have, thus far, considered it their prerogative to keep information secret. Describing the opportunities provided by the Right To Information (RTI) Act (RTA), Sandeep Pandey says that we need to build on the fact that people no longer need to be at the mercy of bureaucrats or politicians. People should now be involved in the process of decision-making and planning, even as social audits are extended to cover all schemes and government offices. [109] The RTA development augurs well for planning at the panchayat level and its transparent execution.

     At the launching of a book [110] former Panchayati Raj Minister Mani Shankar Aiyer pointed out emphatically that the Centre wasn’t decentralising enough to empower the Panchayats. However, there are already some indications that panchayat level planning will emerge in the near future. The guidelines for the Eleventh Plan have specified that civic bodies should prepare a comprehensive education plan with a focus on education as a whole and not on the hardware for individual institutions. [111] Strategies and priorities for each local body will be worked out jointly by the civic chiefs, standing committee chairpersons and working group on education. They will also work out projects for improving the quality of teaching and learning, improving classrooms and recreational facilities, upgrading and maintaining library, laboratory, mid-day meals and other facilities. Literacy, post-literacy and non-formal education too will come under their ambit. Their prioritized proposals on all such aspects will be integrated at the local self-government level. The resource group will whet the projects and integrate it with the district plan and that will in turn complement the education plan for the entire State.

     Ackoff, et al, enunciate three essential principles in interactive planning. Firstly, by participating in the planning process, people affected by planning appreciate how their behavior can impact and improve the process. For example, by understanding their roles and their impact on population control, people will gain an appreciation for the contributions they have to make during the execution of the plan. When people have no role in planning, they do not understand the plan, they do not feel comfortable with the plan, and they will feel no obligation to contribute to its success. With little participation and no feedback from the citizens, centrally developed plans suffer in realism and lead to failure in execution. Therefore, the best plans are possible when they are developed by people at local levels with guidance and assistance from professional planners and plan technicians. As stated earlier, since the various parts of a country are interdependent, their planning should be highly interactive. Furthermore, planning has to be a continual process as the assumptions made about attributes and results of actions might not remain accurate over time. By modifying assumptions as more facts and results are known over time, planning is continually (i.e. periodically) iterated. This adaptation of plan changes increases the effectiveness of the process. Ackoff’s third principle involves coordination and integration of the plans and outcomes at various levels. A country’s plan is divided successively into state level plans, district level plans, and panchayat level plans. Units at the same level (e.g. districts) should coordinate their plans while units at different levels (e.g. district plans within a state) should be integrated.

     As I stated earlier, for example, a section of poultry farmers has to focus on staying in the business and increasing the production many times over while other farmers will have to decide to quit working in poultry farming and move into accounting or teaching or healthcare. Obviously, this process requires coordination, analysis, and integration over time. In interactive planning, in contrast with totalitarian planning, people choose their goals through coordination and by a good understanding of consequences and benefits. It is the role of the units at the top to integrate the plans and guide lower level units with fresh information and likely outcomes based on the prevailing conditions. Free markets and modern communications (cooperative competition) will quickly instruct which people should stay in a given business and who should look for other vocations. It should be noted that all successful businesses in free market economies do business planning and strategic planning and their market plans tell them which markets they should pursue and which ones they should get out of.

     While I discussed planning by constituencies in the foregoing sections, various business leaders have their own plans. For example, an electric power generation plant does not plan for a panchayat or a district but is very likely to plan to generate enough power to supply several districts or states. How will this type of plan fit into constituency plans? In the end, even a multi-megawatt power plant has to have a location within a panchayat and a district. Consequently, its impact is very strong on the plan of one local constituency. This constituency becomes a supplier of electric power and necessarily loses land that was perhaps hosting a poultry farm previously. Moreover, business houses are not normally likely to deal with governments and planners at the panchayat or district level but negotiate with state or national planners (at least initially). This fact emphasizes the necessity for integration, guidance, and coordination. The business house and the government may not take the local planners for granted but should involve them in the planning process from the beginning so that the power plant location is optimized and the local constituency’s economic and human development goals are also satisfied.

     In a similar manner, colleges have to be located in some constituencies but require a minimum capacity for economic viability. Planners of several panchayats can reach an understanding and locate a college to serve several constituencies despite being located in one of the panchayats. Of course on another dimension, these planners will have to coordinate with accreditation bodies and regulatory organizations.

     In an earlier section, I stated that India would have 300 million knowledge workers in its developed state. It is possible to develop that many knowledge workers only by imparting education, and training, and by providing on the job experience. That means many schools, colleges, and training institutions have to be built, equipped, staffed, and financed. Both the government and private businesses might come forward to build many thousands of institutions if a demand of that magnitude is projected and sustained. If the people of India set a vision of a developed country, then there will be an ends plan, which calls for that many knowledge workers. An assessment of the initial state or situation analysis will indicate that the present India has only a much smaller number of knowledge workers. That calls for the education component of the national plan and those of the various lower level plans. Whether it is about providing sufficient quantities of food, potable water, roads to move people and goods, energy to run the industries and households, every axis will show the initial and end state and a path of development.

     The Economic Survey [112] noted “that the expenditure by the Centre and the States on the social sector has risen to Rs 1,009,668 crore in 2006-07 …” This amounts to an average expenditure of Rs. 10,096 per person. If 10 percent of this money is given to a group of villages (say a Mandal or a Panchayat) with a population of 100,000 people, they can have a plan with a budget of Rs 100 crores, which can be easily described to be of critical mass. These groups of villages can also help the state and the country in planning how to invest the other 90 percent of the funds also.

Developing Lists of Strategic Goals

     Since the focus of this paper is on an interactive approach, it is essential to develop master lists of strategic goals (and subgoals) that are available in an electronic format guiding planners in various communities so that they can make selections relevant to their specific community. The strategic goals described by organizations such as RESULTS may serve as useful guides [113]. Here is an exemplary list of goals following the Maslow’s need ladder described earlier.

     The top level goals using the Maslow’s need ladder will run somewhat on the following lines.

• Satisfy Physiological Needs of 100 percent of the population in 40 years
• Satisfy Safety and Security Needs of 100 percent of the population in 40 years
• Satisfy Social or Affiliation Needs of 99 percent of the population in 40 years
• Satisfy Esteem and Recognition Needs of 49 percent of the population in 40 years
• Create an environment to enable as many people as wish to satisfy their Self Actualization Needs
• Create an environment in 40 years where 100% of able bodied people will be self-supporting.

     These strategic goals should be further subdivided into many lower levels as part of the planning process. Tables 9 through 13 show a coarse disaggregation of the needs.

Table 10: Strategic Goals in Physiological Needs (Illustrative list only).

Need Description	Causes	Goal	Remarks
Food (Sadak)	Poverty	Three meals a day for all by 2030	Elimination of hunger
Food	Parental poverty	Midday meal for all school children by 2020	Feeding children of poor parents while educating them
Food	Parental poverty	Baby food at nurseries by 2020	Providing a nurturing environment to babies of poor working mothers
Water (Pani)	Lack of access	Freedom from thirst for all by 2011	Survival
Water	Poor maintenance	High quality water for all by 2030	Health security and freedom from disease
Water	Lack of maintenance	Acceptable quality of all potable water by 2040	Safety & security of food chain
Water	Lack of maintenance	Acceptable quality of water for sanitary purposes for all by 2040	Improving hygiene and health
Air	Polluting sources	Freedom from pollution within prescribed living areas by 2030	Life sustenance
Housing (Makan)	Poverty	Minimum acceptable quality by 2040	Protection from elements
Clothing	Poverty	Minimum quantity for all by 2015	Human values
Environment	Lack of controls	Standard quality by 2025	Preventing diseases
Governance	Hope for poor	Standard processes by 2015	Fundamental rights and responsibilities

Table 11: Strategic Goals in Safety and Security needs (Illustrative list only).

Need Description	Causes	Goal	Remarks
Water	Dry & wet season minimal needs	Acceptable quality by 2040	Safety from Droughts & floods
Air	Quality improvement	Acceptable quality by 2030	Health safety
Housing	Survival from harsh elements	Minimum acceptable standards (700 sq ft per person) by 2040	Survivability
Nutrition	Hunger Nutrition deficiency Lack of fitness Food contamination Contagions Infection Absence of medical care	Nutritional knowledge and initiatives for ~100% of population by 2050	Safety From Diseases Responsibility assigned to self, employer, charities, and panchayat ~100% by 2050
Physical safety	Safety education and first aid Protection by law	Safety knowledge and initiatives for ~100% of population by 2050	Safety from physical harm
Environment	Protection from manmade pollutants	High quality standard  by 2040	Safety From Diseases due to environmental effects
Safety from Accidents	Safety devices Protection devices Fire safety	Safety knowledge and initiatives for ~100% of population by 2050	Safety from physical harm
Security from foreign military threats	Border, Infrastructure, & Installation protection	Security for 100% of the border regions and people by 2050	Protection of nation and integrity
Safety from Thefts	Surveillance Training Locks and Safe lockers	Safety knowledge and initiatives for ~100% of population by 2050	Safety for property
Safety from white collar crimes	Education Accountability Oversight	Safety knowledge and initiatives for ~100% of population by 2050	Safety for property
Safety from natural calamities	Forecast Prevention Relief protection	Safety knowledge and initiatives for ~100% of population by 2050	Safety and insurance for property and livelihood
Safety from psychological stressors	Stress Anxiety	Safety knowledge and initiatives for ~100% of population by 2050	Safety and mental health and peace
Elimination of loss of citizen rights	Police support Legal help Judicial intervention	Safety knowledge and initiatives for ~100% of population by 2050	Safety of democratic and societal rights
Good governance	Protection of rights	Acceptable quality by 2015	Citizen rights and responsibilities

Table 12: Strategic Goals in Social or Affiliation Needs (Illustrative list only).

Need Description	Causes	Goal	Remarks
Good paying jobs	Dependency despondency	Attractive business environment	People become self-reliant
Business environment	Entrepreneurship	Attractive Entrepreneurial environment	Wealth creation by business people
Social networks	Sociological factors (religion, language, origin, caste, race, etc.)	99 percent of the population in 40 years	Improves harmony and provides psychological comfort
Support groups	Succor and counsel	99% in 40 yrs	-ditto-
Meeting places	Positive interaction	99% in 40 yrs	-ditto-
Recreation	Stress relief	99% in 40 yrs	-ditto-
Parks and open spaces	Urban congestion	99% in 40 years	-ditto-
Water	Occupational needs	99% in 40 yrs	Collegiality
Reading rooms and online libraries	Lack of universal access	99% in 40 yrs	Improves knowledge and understanding
Sports and Recreation facilities	Occupying time in healthy pursuits	90% in 40 yrs	Collegiality, belongingness, and relaxation
Theaters	Practice and expression of artistic skills	99% in 40 yrs	Entertainment and collaboration
Auditoriums	Propagation of messages	99% in 40 yrs	-ditto-
Tourism	Enjoying heritage	99% in 40 yrs	Develops understanding
Travel	Mutual understanding and appreciation	99% in 40 yrs	-ditto-
Entertainment	Relief for the mind	99% in 40 yrs	Expands and relaxes minds
Cultural resources	Expression and encouragement of cultural accomplishments	99% in 40 yrs	Instills pride
Religious resources	Faith	99% in 40 yrs	Imbibes values
Spiritual enlightenment	Expression of the superior mind	99% in 40 yrs	Imbibes spirituality
Positive governance	Outlook towards a developed nation	Defining principles by 2015	Citizen and business empowerment

Table 13: Strategic Goals in Esteem and Recognition Needs (Illustrative list only).

Need Description	Causes	Goal	Remarks
Education	Empowerment to reduce and eliminate dependency on governments	100% by 2040	Skill Training Education
Businesses	Promotion of help through ownerships and removing government from business functions	100% by 2040	Knowledge Leadership Capital
Awards	Promoting and encouraging individual initiatives and responsibility	100% by 2040	Private and public academies
Facilitations	Encouraging good initiatives and successes	100% by 2040	By peer groups
Prizes	Encouraging, publicizing, and promoting good initiatives and successes	100% by 2040	By institutions and foundations
Enlightened Governance	Building institutions	Chart principles by 2015	Positive growth of society

Table 14: Strategic Goals in creating an environment to enable as many people as those who wish to satisfy their Self Actualization Needs. A typical example may be seen in California Arts Council [114]. Data classified by means of SIC codes. (Illustrative list only).

Need Description	Causes	Goal	Remarks
Sports	Environment needed for talented individuals to flourish	100% availability of programs and facilities by 2040	Government initiatives gradually transitioned to private organizations
Arts	Environment needed for talented individuals to flourish	100% availability of programs and facilities by 2040	Government initiatives gradually transitioned to private organizations
Fine arts	Environment needed for talented individuals to flourish	100% availability of programs and facilities by 2040	Government initiatives gradually transitioned to private organizations
Occupational accomplishments	Environment needed for talented individuals to flourish	100% availability of programs and facilities by 2040	Government initiatives gradually transitioned to private organizations
Business leadership	Environment needed for entrepreneurial individuals to flourish	100% availability of programs and facilities by 2040	Government initiatives gradually transitioned to private organizations
Social leadership	Environment needed for societal individuals to flourish	100% availability of programs and facilities by 2040	Government initiatives gradually transitioned to private organizations
Government leadership	Environment needed for managerial individuals to flourish	100% availability of programs and facilities by 2040	Government initiatives gradually transitioned to private organizations
Political leadership	Environment needed for individuals with concern for people and land to flourish	100% availability of programs and facilities by 2040	Government initiatives gradually transitioned to private organizations
Spiritual leadership	Environment needed for spiritual individuals to flourish	100% availability of programs and facilities by 2040	Government initiatives gradually transitioned to private organizations

     For example, the physiological needs can be segmented by age group and by the wealth or poverty level of families. In general the needs may be addressed by the people themselves first based on their ability; next by financial institutions through lending; then by charities through giving; and finally by governments (panchayats) through public programs. From a planning point of view, each panchayat will have to take a census of its people and their affordability and the capabilities of private and public institutions to cater to the needy. As the panchayat and the nation become developed, the need for public and private help will reach a minimum and may ultimately vanish. In the medium term, a panchayat’s plan should recognize that charities will take over a part of the task of catering to the needy. Ultimately, it is critical that the panchayat plan set a strategic goal that eventually all able bodied people will self-support all these needs as the country becomes a developed country.

     The need for support by various categories of people is shown in Figure 9. Children depend on either their parents or the government for support. The support required by children is for basic needs as well as to equip them to support themselves for future. Old people and disabled people depend on others for current support. Those with mismatched skills need temporary support. People with only their ability to do manual labor can barely support themselves and need help with upgrading their skills to move up the ladder. Those with skills are slightly better off than the previous category but they also need support to acquire higher knowledge level skills. Finally, people with knowledge level skills and business skills are likely to support themselves and save for the future. Of course, the wealthy need no support and can actually support others in the society. In a developing country there will be more people in the categories needing various degrees of support. At this time, it is unto the government and philanthropic organizations (Self Help Groups (SHG)) to help those in need. In the development phase of a country, people acquire abilities, skills, and knowledge of higher professions and entrepreneurship which will push them into higher income groups and their need for support decreases and ultimately disappears. Thus in a developed country, most people will be able to help themselves and the need for governmental and philanthropic organizational work decreases. Ultimately, all responsibility for satisfying one’s needs devolves on oneself. 

Figure 9: Responsibility for Need satisfaction shifts with development.

     Usually politicians talk about social goals but it is critical that these social goals are translated into economic goals, which in turn can be converted to goals for the production of goods and services. These last goals will provide products and services that people actually use and benefit from. In a mature society, panchayat level goals span personal goals at the low end and district, state, and national goals progressively on the other end.

     Here is an example from Seattle, WA, USA. Alliance for Education, a nonprofit organization, exists to help ensure the academic success of all students in Seattle Public Schools in Washington State in USA. Their 2005-2007 Strategic Plan places its focus on three essential and inter-related strategic goals restated below here. [115]

Goal 1: Every student a Great reader. Reading is a key to student academic success. And, engaging young children in literacy-related activities at home or preschool provides an essential ready-to-learn foundation before starting kindergarten.
Goal 2: A great teacher in every classroom. Vital to student achievement, effective teaching is, in fact, the most significant predictor of a student's success. Our schools need better systems to help recruit, support, and retain great teachers—especially in our most highly challenged schools.
Goal 3: A great school for every student. We can no longer allow our schools to work for some students but not for others. The achievement gap is evident in every school in Seattle and is most pronounced in our highly challenged schools in the city's south end. We must close this gap.

Adding a sense of urgency to these goals is Washington State's requirement that by 2008 all students must meet rigorous academic standards in order to receive a diploma. Focusing our resources on the two most critical factors for student success—reading and effective teaching—while placing stronger emphasis on our highly challenged schools is the key to making sure all students achieve.

     Most of the seventy one panchayat presidents who spoke at the zonal meeting wanted Local Administration Minister of the state of Tamil Nadu to make sure that the common problems of villages were solved. [116] The issues raised included water scarcity, lack of transport and medical facilities, a further reduction in power tariff, more funds for emergency use, greater say in implementation of schemes such as the free colour TV and free gas and LPG stove programmes and enhancement of money given to build houses under the Indira Awaz Yojana (IAY). This example shows that panchayat leaders are not involved at the planning level but are forced to seek specific items of aid from higher level elected or government officials. But in reality, their requirements will be covered as part of the means and detailed deliverables as the panchayats enunciate their strategic goals and convert them into economic goals, and physical products and services.

     Examples of a variety of Strategic Goals chosen by different organizations are given in the references, which may be studied as planners look for guidance. [117]

Representing Processes to Change a System

     A process is used to change a system (e.g. a panchayat) from an initial state to a final state. A process consists of inputs and outputs (interactions with the surroundings). These inputs may be generated by undertaking additional processes or they may be obtained from external sources. A couple of examples will be described to illustrate this point. In order to produce food, one of the inputs required is power, which may also be generated within the system or obtained from outside. Colleges convert citizens into knowledge workers but they will require knowledgeable staff, who may be hired initially from other sources and may ultimately be locally developed. In order to satisfy peoples’ physiological needs, food products have to be created by processes, which require financial inputs. These inputs might come from peoples’ wages supplemented by other payments. In a community, some people may require greater supplementary help than others. As time goes on and as the country approaches a developed state, it is expected that this supplementation will trend to zero. Figure 9 shows a system undergoing a change through a process.

Figure 10: System Undergoing a Change through a Process.

Strategic Planning Format for each District, Sub-district, and Panchayat

      Strategic planning format for a district, or sub-district (CD Block), or a panchayat should be similar to a state plan and the central (or national) plan. Such a similarity will allow these plans to be easily summed up (i.e. integrated) from lower levels to higher levels or divided from one higher level to the next lower level especially using computer methods. The plan structure may follow the Ackoff method [118]. It should start with a background description of the Panchayat. Several categories or subheadings should be set up so that plan developers will be guided to provide information and statistics that fit into the categories. Table 15 shows a typical set of categories for this section. The next section should describe the Situational Analysis, which provides the current state of affairs in the panchayat. This is also a description of the initial conditions of the panchayat. Typically, this section will have the population, area (in acres) of the panchayat, gross panchayat domestic product (GPDP), similar to the GDP of the nation, literacy, population below poverty line, health statistics, and other key statistics relevant to economic and social development. Table 16 shows a typical set of categories for this section.

Table 15: Typical Categories for Background of a Panchayat.

Description	Status	Measure	Remarks
Land area	Characteristics of land use and distribution	Hectares by characteristics	Indicator of economic expectations
Geography and topology	Neighboring panchayats, impacts on social and economic development	Names of neighboring panchayats, commerce exchanges	Interdependence, compatibility, competitiveness, and cooperation
Environment	Physical, security, and political environment	Descriptions	Sets scope for planning
Population and occupations	People, characteristics, prospects for development	Numbers of people in various categories (income, debt, literacy, …)	Key parameters for planners
Economic statistics	Current GPDP, resources, and investment opportunities and climate	GPDP in Rupees, Ag, mineral, water, and other resource potential and current exploitation. Major industries,	Key parameters for planners
Literary statistics	Literacy, vocational,  and college education	Colleges, and schools	Possible outlook
Wealth statistics	People and their wealth	Net worth in Rupees and distribution	Local resources and influence
Security statistics	Crimes and safety	Number of cases and resolutions	Indicator of stability of area
Recreational statistics	Facilities and natural features	Sports and recreational profile of local people	Indicators for social interaction
Health	Diseases and welfare of people	Cases and relief	Indicator for fitness
Artistic trends	Theaters and resources	Artistic profile of local people	Opportunities for satisfying higher level needs

Note on the table: The descriptive categories are illustrative only. There may be hundreds of categories in a real plan.

Table 16: Typical set of Categories for Situational Analysis.

Need Category	Need	Percent or Number of people with the Need	Remarks
Food	One of three meals	20%	Present income supports 2 meals only
Food	Two of three meals	10%	Present income supports 1 meal only
Food	Three of three meals	5%	Present income supports no meals
Food	None of three meals	65%	Private means available
Food	One meal (Seasonal)	20%	During periods of stress
Food	Midday meal at schools	2%	Child welfare
Food	Baby food at nurseries	3%	Infant care
Nutrition	Nutritional supplementation	40%	Staple available but not nutritional diets
Water	Potable water	40%	Inadequate supply
Water	Water for sanitation	20%	Inadequate
Water	Water for animals	10% of animal population	Stress on animals
Water	Dry season minimal needs	60%	Drought
Water	Wet season minimal needs	60%	Floods
Water	Occupational needs	30%	Specify details
Air	Quality improvement	90%	Industrial pollution
Environment	Improvement	50%	Industrial pollution
Education	Literacy	60%	Lack of schools and ability to free time
Jobs	Employment	30%	Lack of skills and/or industry

(Data are given for illustrative purposes only.)

     The next section is the Ends Plan for the panchayat. The strategic goals for every panchayat will be the same (or almost so) in terms of proportions. This is derived from guidance from a national plan that lays down what the national expectations are for a developed India. These expectations are described in terms of gross panchayat domestic product (GPDP), literacy, educational opportunities, food intake, health indexes, nutritional state, employment rates, and so on. There will be differences between panchayats based on the regional food habits (wheat versus, rice versus, jowar, etc,).

     The Ends Plan should convey the key idea that the national expectation for all panchayats in the country by the end of the strategic plan period will be at the same goal state in certain key economic and sociological parameters. For example, the GPDP, the literacy rate, health statistics, nutritional intake levels, and educational opportunities will be above acceptable levels in most panchayats. However, it does not mean that all panchayats in the nation will attain all the strategic goals in the same year. For instance, it is possible that some panchayats will attain their health goals a few years before the end date of the plan while they may reach their educational goals a little later. These differences are natural as the panchayats start at different initial states and progress at different rates in various areas. Some states, districts, and panchayats will start with and continue to enjoy certain inherent advantages. These factors may relate to educational levels, land fertility, mineral and industrial wealth, and other favorable resources. Since the nation has the goal of giving a set of minimum levels of social and economic development opportunities to all panchayats, several optimal development schemes will be part of the guidance. Investments are targeted towards panchayats where they provide maximum yields in short time spans. As these panchayats attain their goals, investments are directed towards panchayats that have been waiting their turn to receive the next set of investments. From the national unity and social harmony points of view, those panchayats that receive early investments also repay into the national development funds faster and at a higher rate of return. However, there could be some panchayats that will lag behind others in development by their sheer inertia and tough luck.

     The final section is the Means Plan. This section lays down how the gaps between the initial state and the goal state are bridged. For example, in order to improve literacy to near one hundred percent, schools have to be set up and children have to be given opportunities to attend them. This takes the construction of schools, equipping them, and staffing them with competent teachers. Similarly, in order to reduce hunger among those below the poverty line, their rations, and incomes have to be supplemented. Likewise, knowledge and skill level of the people of the panchayat can be increased by setting up colleges and vocational schools. See Table 17.

 Table 17: Example of a Means Plan.

Description	Means	Measure	Remarks
Food	Agriculture, imports, exports, and storage – Irrigation, fertilizers, protection, and harvesting	Acres farmed and various inputs	Subdivided into various types of foods
Food processing	Plants	Pounds processed	Subdivided into various types of foods
Water	Potable for humans animals, and for agriculture, and sanitation	Flow, consumption, and storage	Sources identified
Industries	Raw materials, components, etc.	Pounds, numbers, and monetary units as applicable	Subdivided into various industries
Power and energy (inc. fuels)	For agriculture, residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial uses. Imports and exports	KWH, BTUs, fuel values	Indicates modernization and energy efficiency
Infrastructure	Roads, rail, and other transport	People-miles, ton-miles	Indicates mobility
Labor	Various occupations & Inflows and outflows	Numbers by occupation and monetary units	Indicates prosperity and development
Education	Schools, colleges, training centers	Number of students, teachers, degrees and diplomas	Indicates movement up the ladder
Communications	Phone and Internet	Numbers and capacities	Indicates reach
Businesses	Banks, stores, services	Numbers by type	Self-sufficiency and progress
Governance	Offices	Types and numbers	Indicates ready availability of services

(The list is illustrative and not exhaustive.)

      The panchayat level planners are neither expected to be experts in planning nor specialists in computing resource requirements to move a group of people from an initial state to a goal state in a given period of time. But since the planners are expected to be wise leaders that know the aspirations of the people in their communities, they can set the goals and rates of progress depending on available resources or means. Guidance is provided in the plan format in the form of formulae to calculate the means necessary to achieve incremental progress towards their goal states. In general, the means required are shown in terms of finances, manpower, skills levels, management capabilities, land and other physical resources, energy, water, and so on.

     The Delphi method, [119] which is a systematic interactive forecasting method based on independent inputs of selected experts can be used to develop the details of the formats for the planning tool. Experts in social and economic development and local politicians can provide their expert knowledge in putting together the initial set of needs for local plans. As thousands panchayats interact with Alpha and Beta versions of a tool, a final planning tool will emerge that will address all the developmental issues for most of the panchayats.

     Prior to asking the panchayats to develop their plans, an automated tool with the format for developing the plan should be developed based on the descriptions and methods indicated in this section. Once a powerful and user-friendly tool is given to panchayat leaders, plan development will be merely the enunciation of their desires consistent with their willingness to work and make investments and current sacrifices and within the bounds of the resource richness of their area.

Conclusions and Indian Imperatives

     Mahatma Gandhi succeeded in his campaign for Indian independence by mobilizing the masses whether it is the Salt Satyagraha or the Quit India movement. Any undertaking that concerns people’s lives is best done by involving them from the beginning to the end. As India embarks on a journey to become a developed country, it is best done with the people and by the people themselves in stead of by a relatively small group of officials. Making a country a developed country is a mammoth undertaking involving many highly interlinked facets of the economy. Hence a grand plan is essential. And such a plan involves a highly collaborative process consisting of planning at local level with guidance and direction from successively higher levels ensuring consistency with a national plan.

     As seen in various cases of setting of industrial plants, whether they are automobile manufacturing units, or bauxite ore mining, or thermal plants, or a highway, or a dam across a river, people have been objecting to them. Rural, tribal, urban, and suburban people are united in their opposition to some plan or the other. If this much of the resistance is coming while India undertakes development from the one trillion dollar level, it is unimaginable what level of opposition will be seen when India is getting into developments in the multi-trillion dollar level of its economy. People have to understand their present costs and future benefits. People should be willing to invest today in order to reap the harvest tomorrow. They should have a stake in the process and those stakes come only through participation in the planning process.

     Ordinarily national leaders call on citizens to sacrifice for the sake of the nation. But if one examines the detailed characteristics of a developed country, there is really no need for sacrifices but a call for investments in the future of citizens, their families, and their communities. A smart plan ensures that all the investments and expectations are in balance and not at cross purposes. When people see the plan and realize that there are benefits for them, their communities, and their children and grand children, there can be overwhelming support and commitment to the goals and the means. It is essential to place a national strategic plan on a web site for all citizens to see. When people view the plan, they can see their own roles in it. As the progress of the plan is monitored, individuals and communities can feel the progress. As course corrections are applied to the plan, people understand the need for changes, sympathize and resonate with them, and work in harmony with modifications to goals and means. As the fruits of development are harvested, they see the results in their granaries, on the dinner plates, on the diplomas of their children, and in their own bank accounts. Whenever they are dissatisfied with a situation in a community or when they see an opportunity come their way, people in a panchayat can go to the plan tool and provide inputs for the next iteration of the plan. As people see that their feedback or suggestions are going directly into the input section of the plan, they develop greater faith in an open democracy. They will come to own the plan, support it, and contribute mightily to its success. India will become a developed nation with a human face that glows with happiness and self esteem.

Appendix 1: Collaborative Planning

     Innes and Booher [120] state that a society with capacity is self-organizing and works in real time through networked, shared, and distributed intelligence. According to these authors [121], research has shown that complex systems at the edge of chaos can be adaptive to rapid change and even move to higher levels of performance through the individual actions of many agents, linked together and acting with a few common heuristics on the basis of their local knowledge. Such a process can be more quickly responsive and more “intelligent” than top-down guidance or highly structured action and more suitable to our near-chaotic times of rapid change and multiple conflicting goals and perspectives.

     In a society with capacity, instead of bureaucracies in silos, protecting their turf and maintaining hierarchical control, we would have information flowing freely through networks of players, each of whom is capable of acting autonomously in response to events and information, and in this process, the system can respond more quickly and intelligently. Instead of relying primarily on standardized ways of proceeding, we would rely more on ad hoc gatherings of interested and knowledgeable players to frame problems in new and shared ways and develop nuanced actions to respond to them.

Instead of guiding players by rigid, highly-specified rules, they would develop shared meanings and heuristics, allowing them to act cooperatively or on their own.

     Community capacity is the interaction of human capital, organizational resources, and social capital existing within a given community that can be leveraged to solve collective problems and improve or maintain the well being of a given community. It may operate through informal social processes and/or organized effort. [122]

     Collaborations with capacity share information and engage in constructive dialogue rather than debate and argument (Yankelovich 1999 [120]). They have well-developed interactions among themselves as well as links to outside groups. They share both understandings of problems and recognition of their shared or reciprocal interests. Effective collaborations engage diverse interests and allow their decisions to be informed by the knowledge of these differing stakeholders. They are not exclusive provinces of the powerful, but incorporate the interests of those ordinarily excluded. As a result, they produce more robust and legitimate strategies. They have both depth and breadth in their leadership with diverse participants willing to take responsibility and initiative as needed. They have roots in their communities and can mobilize players to get results. They produce innovative solutions to problems that have seemed intractable. They can respond in a timely way to new challenges, whether they are threats or opportunities. The most effective collaborations build their own capacity by tracking outcomes they are producing and by providing this information back to participants to enhance their learning process. They continually reassess their directions and strategies. Collaborative organizations that do these tasks well are recognized and respected in their communities, which in turns increases their capacity.

     A governance system with capacity is one that encourages diverse voices and interests, making sure they are informed and empowered to play roles in governance. It has a rich array of nonprofits, interest groups, and others who represent the full range of interests in the society and who develop specialized knowledge and expertise which they contribute to the governance process. Such a system is characterized by well-networked working relationships among jurisdictions; agencies representing different sectors; business, education, social equity, and ethnic interests; the nonprofit sector; and advocacy organizations. These diverse players can trust one another and recognize their reciprocal interests. Such a governance system makes use of the knowledge and expertise of these and is able to pull together appropriate groups to solve problems or address opportunities on short notice. It depends on a distributed intelligence system, where many players are able to act independently on the basis of their own local knowledge in ways that will be beneficial not only to themselves, but also to the system as a whole. Participants and constituencies are neither passive nor confrontational, but play active and engaged roles in shaping public action. [120]

     “The project staff helped in the creation of 480 Village Development Committees (VDCs) - meant to assist in the planning and implementation of project investments and share responsibility for maintenance and protection. This report has information or ideas on local planning and village development – may have useful pointers.” [123]

     “First, governments and international organisations tend to be geared to large-scale, big-budget, hierarchically-managed, hardware-oriented, statistically-monitored services delivered from the top down. In neither institutional structures nor in habits of mind are they comfortable with the idea of supporting large numbers of small-scale, low-budget, community-managed, behaviour-changing, demand-driven services.” [124]

     Second, there is the problem that radical new policies can easily lose their edge by the time they have been passed down to local levels of government where the practical action is required. “Even the best new policies are weakened or destroyed by the time they reach the ground,” says Sait Damodaran (Page 33 in [124]): ‘it is like passing a block of ice through many hands – by the time it reaches the poor, there is nothing left.’”

     “Yet there are those in government who have not been slow to see in the new approach – with its emphasis on community-led efforts, self-reliance, and ‘government as facilitator-rather-than-as-doer’ – an opportunity to absolve themselves of responsibility.” (Page 14 in [124])

     “The implementation of that approach, the report suggested, demands changes not merely of degree but of kind: there must be a ‘paradigm shift’ away from past roles and responsibilities, in order to make possible the transition to locally operated and democratically managed solutions. Government must move towards a role as facilitator, while people’s organisations accept new responsibilities for planning, implementation, and maintenance. These new relationships cannot come into being without a spirit of partnership between governments, people, and NGOs; and none of this will happen unless there is a collective decision to put water, sanitation and hygiene at the core of Gujarat’s strategy for human development.” [Page 32 of reference [124]]

     Wiki technology [125] is helping many collaborative efforts. People with a variety of skills and from different locations can participate and contribute to the development of information using this advanced technology.

     Collaboration will allow governments at different levels to play their respective but different roles. It may also be noted that it is the same citizens that elect their representatives to the different governments and charge them with different roles. Consequently, people also have responsibilities and rights to participate with each of their representatives in giving them their briefs. In other words, people participate with their elected representatives in stating their expectations and wishes for economic and social development and their willingness to make certain concessions, and sacrifices. So for planning to be responsive, collaborative plans have to be developed for each and every constituency. Such plans are developed by committees respectively chaired by the Members of Parliament, and by the Members of the Legislative Assemblies, and the Chairmen of the Panchayats. By grouping or coalescing the lower level plans to the next higher levels, plans for the States and the Nation will be realized.

Appendix 2 National Industrial Classification (NIC) and Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Codes

     The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is the standard used by the US Federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data related to the U.S. business economy. NAICS was developed under the auspices of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and adopted in 1997 to replace the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system.

     Here is a brief description of the Standard Industrial Classification codes. “… the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC) undertook the task of development of classification of all economic activities at the international level and released the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) first time in 1948. The purpose for this exercise was to provide a framework for various countries for re-arranging their National Activity Classifications to generate internationally comparable statistics.” [126]

     “In India, the National Industrial Classification (NIC) is the standard classification followed for classifying economic activities. The NIC is prepared to suit the Indian conditions and follows the principles and procedures laid down in the United Nations’ International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC).” [127]

Appendix 3 Strategic Planning

     Ackoff, Finnel, and Gharajedaghi [90] described strategic planning for a corporation’s future. The principles and methods described by Ackoff, et al are equally applicable in developing a strategic plan for a country. It starts with the belief that the future of a country depends on what planners choose and what they do to bring about changes. Planners therefore should choose a desirable future and select or invent ways of accomplishing the chosen future. Simply stated, there will be the initial and the final states, and a path connecting those end states. By studying the situation, the initial state is determined and described. By imagining and envisioning, an end state is defined and described. For example, that 65 percent of the population is dependent on agricultural activities is in the initial state and that only 1 percent of the population can be dependent on such activities is in the goal state.  The goal state is what leaders and planners decide it to be. Usually, this decision is arrived at based on the aspirations of the people. As India wanted to become a developed country, such as the US, the characteristics of the US development point to what characteristics have to be chosen for India. We may study the number of people whose basic needs (roti, kapda, makan, pani, and bijli) are yet to be satisfied and choose an end state where these needs will be satisfied for those people. Thus, the initial and goal states will have several attributes and characteristics with starting and ending values. The paths will determine how these attributes change over time and what forces and factors cause such changes.

     Ackoff, et al, enunciate three essential principles in interactive planning. First by participating in the planning process, people affected by planning appreciate how their behavior can impact and improve the process. For example, by understanding their roles and their impact on population control, people will gain an appreciation for the contributions they have to make during the execution of the plan. Therefore, professional planners should assist people to plan for themselves. As stated earlier, since the various parts of a country are interdependent, their planning and is highly interactive. Results of one part will affect all other parts and the country as a whole. Secondly, the planning has to be a continual process as the assumptions made about attributes and results of actions might not be accurate. By modifying assumptions as more facts and results are known over time, planning is continually iterated. This adaptation of plan changes increases the effectiveness of the process. The third principle involves coordination and integration of the plans and outcomes at various levels. A country’s plan is divided successively into state level plans, district level plans, and panchayat level plans. Units at the same level (e.g. districts) should coordinate their plans while units at different levels (e.g. district plans in a state) should be integrated.

     As we stated earlier, a section of poultry farmers has to focus on staying in the business and increasing the production many times while other farmers will have to decide to quit working in poultry farming and move into accounting or teaching or healthcare. Obviously, this process requires coordination, analysis, and integration over time. In interactive planning, in contrast with totalitarian planning, people choose their goals through coordination and by a good understanding of consequences and benefits. It is the role of the units at the top to integrate the plans and guide lower level units with fresh information and likely outcomes based on the prevailing conditions.

     While we discuss planning by constituencies, various business leaders have their own plans. For example, an electrical power plant does not plan for a panchayat or a district but is very likely to plan enough power to supply several states. How will this type of plan fit into the constituency plans? In the end, even a multi-megawatt power plant has to have a location within a panchayat and a district. Consequently, its impact is very strong on the plan of a one local constituency. This constituency becomes a supplier of electric power and necessarily loses land that was perhaps hosting a poultry farm. Moreover, business houses are not normally likely to deal with governments and planners at the panchayat or district level but negotiate with state or national planners (at least initially). This fact emphasizes the necessity for integration, guidance, and coordination. The business house and the government may not take the local planners for granted but should involve them in the planning process from the beginning so that the power plant location is optimized and the local constituency’s development goals are also satisfied.

     In a similar manner, colleges have to be located in some constituencies but require a minimum capacity for economic viability. Thus, college planners ensure that they cater to several constituencies despite being located in one place. Of course on another dimension, these planners will have to coordinate with accreditation bodies and regulatory departments.

     In an earlier section, we discussed that India will have 300 million knowledge workers in its developed state. It is possible to develop that many workers only by imparting education, and training, and by providing on the job experience. That means many schools, colleges, and training institutions have to be built, equipped, and staffed. Both the government and private businesses might come forward to build many thousands of institutions if there is a demand of that magnitude. If the people of India set a vision of a developed country, then there will be an ends plan, which calls for that many knowledge workers. An assessment of the initial state or situation analysis will indicate that the present India has only a much smaller number of knowledge workers. That calls for the education component of the national plan and various lower level plans. Whether it is providing sufficient quantities of food, potable water, roads to move people and goods, energy to run the industries and households, every axis will show the initial and end state and a path of development.

     In order to undertake such a comprehensive process, Ackoff, et al, suggest three types of study, called, systems analysis, obstruction analysis, and reference projections. Systems analysis looks into what the constituency is and its current state. The obstruction analysis studies the internal and external conditions, policies, and practices that lay in the way of development. It is important to overcome these obstructions and if the constituency and its environment are not changed significantly, there will be certain results, which will be projected by the reference projection. In general, these projections are unwanted consequences and the planning function should suggest mechanisms for changes to forestall those negative consequences and bring about modifications in the behavior of the system comprising the constituency such that the results take it towards the end goals.

     According to Ackoff, [129] Ends planning consists of designing a desired future and extracting from it those ends that the rest of the planning process is addressed to pursuing. There are three types of desired outcomes, namely, goals, objectives, and ideals. Goals are ends that are expected to be realized within the period covered by the plan. For example, creating 300 million knowledge workers may be set as a goal. Objectives are ends that are not expected to be obtained until after the plan period has ended but towards which much progress is anticipated during the plan period. For example, causes for global warming may not be eliminated during the plan period but much progress might be accomplished towards such a goal. Green energy may be an objective and may become a goal in a later strategic plan. Finally, ideals are believed to be unattainable but towards which continuous progress is thought to be possible and is expected. Conflicts due to differences in religion, caste, political ideologies are very common in India. In an ideal state, these differences are isolated and perhaps eliminated. But in reality, they spill into most economic developmental efforts. Efforts towards the minimization of such transgressions are expected during the plan period.

     In this planning process, the designers would envision an idealized redesign of the constituency if they were free to bring that change about. This is in general a freewheeling process except for a couple of restraints. The design must be technologically feasible and that it is operationally viable. In a strategic plan that spans a forty or fifty year period, numerous novel and advanced technologies are likely to emerge and there is scope to include those emerging technologies in the periodic revisions of the plan. The key is to be creative in the long term and practical in the short term.

     This is followed by means planning, which is concerned with finding or inventing ways of approximating the idealized design as closely as possible. Ackoff defines a mean “is a behavior that either produces desired outcome or brings one closer to it.” There are several types of means that may be selected and used in the plan. Acts are simple things to do, which take relatively little time to do. An example is the posting of pictures of the progress of a construction project on a web site. Course of action, process, or procedure is a sequence of acts directed at producing a desired outcome. Negotiating a memorandum of agreement (MOA) or a memorandum of understanding (MOU) is an example of this type of means. A practice is a frequently repeated act or course of action. Updating accounts and funds dispersals is an example of this means. A project is a system of simultaneous and /or sequential courses of action directed at a set of outcomes. For example, excavating for a water tank or building a check dam falls into this category. Finally, a program is a system of projects directed at a set of desired outcomes. Building a college and educating people into professional courses is an example of a program.

     Resource planning identifies required resources and their quantum to accomplish the means selected. The main types of resources are: 1) material, supplies, energy, and service inputs, 2) facilities and equipment, 3) personnel, 4) information, and Money.

     Implementation and control phase shows who are responsible for which actions and their timing. The strategic goals identified in the plan are further subdivided into goals and objectives, which are entrusted to program managers and project managers to execute the plan.  

     These five phases are conducted simultaneously and interactively. In practice, they are continually revised and implemented.

     Ackoff, et al, define the mess as a system of interrelated threats and opportunities. Formulation of a mess consists of identifying current and future threats and opportunities. Inputs to this phase are obtained by conducting a systems analysis, obstruction analysis, and reference projections. A systems analysis is a description of the current nature and state of the country, state, district, and panchayat.

REFERENCES AND ENDNOTES:

{Please note that over time some links may not work as the websites are modified or deleted by the website managers.}

[1] Som Karamchetty, PHD, PE, lives in Potomac, Maryland, USA. He is a Technology and Management Consultant, and can be reached at somkdsr@verizon.net.

[2]http://pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=810

[3] A P J Abdul Kalam with Y S Rajan, “India 2020: A Vision for the New Millennium, Penguin Books India, 1998.

[4] Sam Pitroda, “Vision, Values & Velocity,” Siliconindia 2001.

[5] Frank G. Goble, The Third Force: The Psychology of Abraham Maslow, 1970, Jefferson Center for Character Education, Published by Maurice Bassett Publishing (2004).

6] Maslow had suggested the Need Ladder for an individual and not for a country; the current author extrapolated the concept to a nation.

[7] http://www.hindu.com/2006/01/28/stories/2006012803971100.htm

[8] http://www.hinduonnet.com/2001/03/29/stories/0629000d.htm

[9] http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/305005.html

[10] http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/281998.html

[11] http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/271211.html

[12] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/278938.html

[13] http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/magazine/2000/0811/cs.india.wisdom.html

[14] http://www.ecifm.rdg.ac.uk/history.htm

[15] http://www.tribuneindia.com/2003/20030126/spectrum/main2.htm

[16] http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/34707

[17] Actually, India would still not catch up with the US, as the US GDP would have risen in the meantime and the Indian inflation rates and population increase would also impact the results. For simplicity sake, the current author has taken the liberty of using data from different years in these illustrative calculations and made comparisons. On the other hand, with smart utilization of emerging technologies and choices of living patterns, it is also possible that Indians may enjoy better standard of living even at lower GDP levels.

[18] http://www2.goldmansachs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf

[19] http://www.usindiafriendship.net/viewpoints1/Indias_Rising_Growth_Potential.pdf

[20] http://sramanamitra.com/2007/02/09/need-product-companies-for-indias-growth/

[21] http://www.indiadaily.org/entry/42-years-from-now-india-will-be-ahead-of-us-goldman-sachs-global-research/

[22] http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/21948.html

[23] http://www.msmisp.com/futuretest/

[24] http://www.iloveindia.com/economy-of-india/india-gdp.html

 [25] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/25735._.html

[26] http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/35791

[27] http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/35751

[28] http://www.oalj.dol.gov/PUBLIC/DOT/REFERENCES/DOTPARTS.HTM

[29] http://www.bls.gov/soc/socguide.htm

[30] http://www.bls.gov/oco/

[31] http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/

[32] http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/35792

[33] Data compiled by the current author from Table 3 of a report of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis available at this web site. http://bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2006/gsp1006.pdf Detailed data are available at http://www.bea.gov/bea/pn/GDPbyInd_VA_NAICS_1998-2005.xls)

[34] Table compiled by the current author from Bureau of Economic Census Data for 2005 from the spreadsheet at this site. http://www.bea.gov/bea/pn/GDPbyInd_VA_NAICS_1998-2005.xls

[35] In the next fifty years, the total number of graduates coming out of the current seven IITs will be 150,000 in comparison with the 300 million knowledge workers needed by a developed Indian economy in that time frame.

[36] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/19939.html

[37] http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2000/041200.htm#II

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization

[38] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_European_metropolitan_areas

[39] http://www.top500.de/cities/ranks/page576.php

     http://www.top500.de/sales/ranks/page576.php

[40] http://www.sharedinsights.com/about/blogs/barry/archives/2006_04_01_archive.html

There are varying estimates of knowledge workers in the US. See the following references.

http://www.plunkettresearch.com/InfoTechComputersSoftware/InfoTechComputersSoftwareTrends/tabid/173/Default.aspx

http://www.lillecorp.com/pdf/BW-FEB23.pdf

http://www.brightplanet.com/pdf/DocumentsValue.pdf

[41] Indian Finance Minister announced the formation of a National Skill Development Corporation http://www.indianexpress.com/story/350415.html

[42] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/268070._.html

[43] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/294331.html

[44] Pratap Bhanu Mehta, “To reform UP, trifurcate it,” http://www.indianexpress.com/story/23884._.html

[45] http://indiacode.nic.in/coiweb/amend/amend73.htm

[46] Rajneesh, Shalini and Goel, S.L.; Panchayati Raj in India – Theory and Practice; New Delhi, Deep & Deep; 2003 quoted in http://www.localgovernmentindia.org/local-government-india-1.asp?sub_id=120&sub_menu=DECENTRALISED%20PLANNING&id=8

[47] http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/01/18/stories/2007011800050800.htm

[48] http://indiacode.nic.in/coiweb/amend/amend74.htm

[49] http://www.thesouthasian.org/archives/2005/new_amendments_useless_without.html

[50] http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/ihsg/currentresearchprograms.html#5

[51] http://www.hindu.com/2007/01/08/stories/2007010801931000.htm

[52] http://www.economywatch.com/annual-plans-of-states/andhra-pradesh.html

[53] http://www.hindu.com/2007/03/05/stories/2007030514610300.htm

[54] http://www.cseindia.org/programme/nrml/rgrant_fund.htm

[55] http://planningcommission.nic.in/midterm/cont_eng1.htm

http://pib.nic.in/archieve/factsheet/2005/panchayatiraj20051219.pdf

http://www.ipcs.org/whatsNewArticle11.jsp?action=showView&kValue=1975&status=article&mod=b

[56] An example is the “NATIONAL PLAN OF ACTION COMMITMENT TO THE CHILD,” http://wcd.nic.in/npac.htm

[57] Nasscom President Kiran Karnik is quoted in a report, “Of the one trillion dollar world market of engineering services, India's export is likely to be doubled by 2020 at around $50 billion … Unfortunately of the 4,50,000 engineers that our country churns out every year, only 30 per cent have the skill sets to meet the requirement of the industry.”

[58] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/24437.html

    Project Management Institute information is at the link below here

    http://www.pmi.org/info/default.asp

[59] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/24480.html

[60] http://www.gdnet.org/middle.php?oid=847

[61] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/23982.html

[62] Dr. M. Ramakrishna Reddy, “Integrating Population into Development: Emergence of State Population Policies in India,” http://iussp2005.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=51260

[63] http://mospi.nic.in/saroja_strength_stat_system.pdf

[64] http://www.aponline.gov.in/Quick%20Links/Departments/Planning/OrgStructure/OrgStructure.doc

http://www.aponline.gov.in/Quick%20Links/Departments/Panchayat%20Raj%20and%20Rural%20Development/OrgStructure/OrgStructure.doc

[65] http://www.economywatch.com/annual-plans-of-states/andhra-pradesh.html

[66] http://www.hindu.com/2007/12/27/stories/2007122751430300.htm

[67] http://www.hindu.com/2007/11/21/stories/2007112155020600.htm

[68] http://www.hindu.com/2007/11/06/stories/2007110661640500.htm

[69] http://www.cpim.org/pd/2007/1021/10212007_prabhat.htm

[70] http://www.hindu.com/2008/02/22/stories/2008022260090500.htm

[71] http://www.undp.org/execbrd/pdf/UNDAF02/India_UNDAF.pdf

[72] http://www.un.org.in/unnew/undaf/undaf.htm

[73] http://www.education.nic.in/cd50years/g/S/I6/0SI60401.htm
[74] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/22066.html

http://www.indiaprwire.com/businessnews/20070216/17637.htm

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1922833,000600010003.htm

[75] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/19802._.html

[76] http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/35799

[77] http://sezindia.nic.in/andharapradesh.asp

http://www.kasez.com/andharapradesh.htm

http://sezindia.nic.in/writereaddata/statePolicies/jharkhandpolicy.pdf

http://sezindia.nic.in/index.asp

[78] http://www.hindu.com/2007/02/27/stories/2007022720750500.htm

[79] http://www.hindu.com/2007/02/17/stories/2007021703111700.htm

http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/35054

[80] http://www.hindu.com/2007/02/26/stories/2007022606790300.htm

[81] http://www.photius.com/countries/india/society/india_society_telangana_movement.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/5277014.stm

[82] http://planningcommission.nic.in/

[83] http://scid.stanford.edu/pdf/credpr96.pdf

[84] same as End note 69 above

[85] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/24817._.html

[86] http://www.answers.com/topic/andhra-pradesh

http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1E1-AndhraPr.html

http://www.aponline.gov.in/Apportal/SocioSurvery0607/economic_Survey.html

http://www.aponline.gov.in/Apportal/SocioSurvery0607/Chapters/8.%20Social%20Infrastructure.doc

http://www.aponline.gov.in/Apportal/SocioSurvery0607/Annexures/annexures.html

[87] http://www.aponline.gov.in/Apportal/SocioSurvery0607/economic_Survey.html

[88] http://vizianagaram.ap.nic.in/DistrictProfile.htm

[89] http://www.hindu.com/2007/08/08/stories/2007080854180500.htm

[90] Russell L. Ackoff, Elsa Vergara Finnel, and Jamshid Gharajedaghi, “A Guide to Controlling Your Corporation’s  Future,” John Wiley and Sons, 1984.

[90A] For the sake of avoiding complexity in this discussion, changes in population over time are ignored.

[91] http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/CSRI/publications/report_12_CGI%20Role%20of%20Business%20in%20Society%20Report%20FINAL%2010-03-06.pdf

[92] http://presidentofindia.nic.in/scripts/sllatest1.jsp?id=217

[93] http://censusindia.gov.in/Tables_Published/Admin_Units/admin.html The actual numbers might vary over time due to administrative changes.

[94] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchising

[95] http://www.ceeol.com/aspx/issuedetails.aspx?issueid=d3ed2ba5-a86a-48ea-a145-04820f55f4f4&articleId=3bbac8de-cb59-49d9-8281-8dcde7e0accf

http://www.warnborough.edu/accreditation.htm

http://www.adishankara.net/

[96] http://www.census.gov/epcd/naics/naicscod.txt

[97] http://exim.indiamart.com/sic-codes/

[98] http://www.census.gov/epcd/naics02/naicod02.htm

[99] http://www.bls.gov/opub/rtaw/pdf/table10.pdf

[100] http://www.bls.gov/opub/rtaw/pdf/table17.pdf

[101] http://www.bls.gov/opub/rtaw/pdf/table20.pdf

The US population in the year 2000 was 281 million.

Source: http://www.census.gov/population/pop-profile/2000/chap02.pdf.

[102] http://www.hindu.com/2007/02/19/stories/2007021911120100.htm

[103] Strategic Planning is described in Appendix 3.

[104] See Russell L Ackoff, Elsa Vergara Finnel, and Jamshid Gharajedaghi

[105] The term ‘planners’ here is not meant to be planning operatives or technicians. Planners comprise the leadership who are chosen by the people and are charged with the responsibility to lead the people with a new vision.

[106] http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl1926/stories/20030103001508500.htm

[107] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_wiki_software

[108] http://www.hindu.com/2007/05/01/stories/2007050115930100.htm

[109] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/208040.html

[110] http://www.indianexpress.com/story/207777.html

[111] http://www.hindu.com/2007/06/17/stories/2007061708840100.htm

[112]http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/002200702280314.htm

[113] “RESULTS is a nonprofit grassroots advocacy organization committed to creating the political will to end hunger and the worst aspects of poverty. RESULTS is committed to individuals exercising their personal and political power by lobbying elected officials for effective solutions and key policies that affect hunger and poverty.” The strategic goals set by this organization can be used as a guide by CD Blocks and Panchayats in India as they develop their own Strategic Plans.

http://www.results.org/website/article.asp?id=31

http://www.results.org/website/article.asp?id=36

http://results.techriver.net/website/article.asp?id=650

http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/

[114] http://www.cac.ca.gov/files/AppendixE4.pdf

[ 115] http://www.alliance4ed.org/goals/

[116] http://www.hindu.com/2007/08/04/stories/2007080462090100.htm

[ 117] http://www.ci.independence.mo.us/hr/StrategicGoals.aspx

http://www.iowadnr.com/waste/p2/strategic.html

http://www.dau.mil/Spotlight/ATL_Implementation_Plan.pdf

http://aspe.hhs.gov/hhsplan/

http://www.dol.gov/_sec/stratplan/strat_plan_2006-2011.htm

http://www.cfo.doe.gov/strategicplan/performance.htm

http://www.ci.kent.wa.us/citycouncil/strategicgoals.asp

http://www.nsf.gov/about/budget/fy2001/investments.htm

[118] Ackoff et al already cited at footnote 89

[119] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method

[120] Professor Judith E. Innes and David E. Booher, Working Paper 2003-03, “The Impact of Collaborative Planning on Governance Capacity,” http://escholarship.org/uc/item/98k72547#

[121] Kauffman, S., (1995) At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Complexity. London: Viking, and Holland, J. (1998). Emergence: From Chaos to Order. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co. Inc.

[122] Chaskin, R., “Defining Community Capacity: A Definitional Framework and Case Studies from a Comprehensive Community Initiative,” Urban Affairs Review 36(3):291–323, (2001, January).

[123] http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ESSD/sdvext.nsf/60ByDocName/ParticipationintheHimalayanFoothillsLessonsfromWatershedDevelopmentinIndiaSDPaper382000PDF160KB/$FILE/SDP38.pdf

[124] http://www.wsscc.org/pdf/publication/Listening_English_full_pages.pdf

[125] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki and

http://twiki.org/cgi-bin/view/Main/KaushalCavale

[126] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/class/intercop/techsubgroup/02-01/tsg0201-12.htm

[127] http://mospi.nic.in/nic_2004_foreword.pdf and

http://mospi.nic.in/stat_act_t3.htm

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