Planting Millions of Trees in the Deserts might augment Global Atmospheric Effects; Modeling and Economic Evaluation is needed
Som Karamchetty
somkdsr@verizon.net
Abstract:
Global water scarcity and extreme weather conditions are expected to cause severe problems for humans all over the world. International conflicts for the available water resources are emerging and will only exacerbate, unless remedial actions are implemented. Basically, the water scarcity and extreme weather conditions are caused by global heating, which is, in turn, a result of deforestation and excessive use of fossil fuels.
The consequences of continued carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and greenhouse gas (GHG) build up are expected to lead to disastrous climate changes. In order to thwart such detrimental effects on the earth in the next couple of decades, large scale reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases are advocated. Use of renewable energy resources (solar, wind, and water) and nuclear power are being advanced from the input point of view. Additionally, industrial processes for carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and sequestration are also under development.
However, it is generally known that trees can act as carbon dioxide absorbers as well as augmenters of atmospheric abnormalities. Therefore, we should ask if mega-scale plantation of trees in the deserts of the world could be the natural solution to this man-made problem.
Since any mega-scale project is very expensive and the consequences can be equally huge, computer modeling to verify and validate the technical feasibility and economic viability is suggested. Such modeling consists of three parts: 1) Computation of CO2 sequestration by tree plantations, 2) Consequential effects on the atmosphere (rains and temperatures) based on the sizes and location of such plantations, and 3) Economic viability of such plantations.
The aim of this note is to suggest such a modeling program.
Overview of the Problem:
Global water scarcity and extreme weather conditions have become common place and they are expected to cause severe problems for humans all over the world in the next few decades. International conflicts for the available water resources are emerging and are expected to exacerbate. Basically, the water scarcity and extreme weather conditions are caused by global heating, which is, in turn, a result of deforestation and excessive use of fossil fuels by the rapid industrialization in the last two centuries.
Emissions of several important greenhouse gases that result from human activity have increased substantially since large-scale industrialization began in the mid-1800s. Most of these human-caused (anthropogenic) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were carbon dioxide (CO2) from burning fossil fuels. [1]
According to Carbon Brief, “Scientists have developed a set of pathways for how technology, energy and land use, and the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could change over the centuries ahead. The four “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs) each provide a plausible description of the future, based on socio-economic scenarios of how the global society grows, develops, and uses land and energy.” [2] We have only a short time before drastic action is required to prevent disastrous consequences to future human populations.
Quoting a study [3] published in Science Advances on February 13, 2018, James Temple writes, “Heat waves, downpours, and dry spells worse than any in recorded history would become between three and five times more likely.” [4]
The greenhouse effect occurs when greenhouse gases (GHG), particularly carbon dioxide, collect close to the Earth’s surface. The sun’s rays penetrate the atmosphere and are then trapped by the accumulation of carbon dioxide, causing the temperature within the atmosphere to rise dramatically. Some heat is absorbed by the Earth’s surface, only to be radiated back into the atmosphere later. Although a small percentage of the heat is able to exit the atmosphere, a larger portion remains trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere. [5]
In recent years, carbon dioxide emissions have become a serious environmental concern on a global scale. Because of their impact on the greenhouse effect, which ultimately causes climate change, scientists and individuals around the globe have become increasingly concerned with their environmental impact in relation to carbon dioxide. [6]
“New studies of severe storms and catastrophic floods help to confirm that rising greenhouse gas levels actually do increase the odds of such extreme weather events—and perhaps make them stronger.”[7] Seethraman of ET Bureau stated [8], “In the event of a temperature rise of 2° Celsius by 2050, India will have to import more than twice the foodgrain it will be required to without climate change. It’s a mission whose importance can’t be overstated.”
Major Approaches to Solve the Problem:
Carbon sequestration and alternate renewable energy sources are contemplated as solutions to reduce the grave effects of global warming. Several major technical efforts are being pursued and research is under way.
In a Technology Review article, James Temple discusses the magnitude of work required to reduce Greenhouse gases. [9]
Current Proposal:
It is worthwhile evaluating if mega-scale tree plantation can augment and eliminate the greenhouse gas problem. It is important to note that with ever increasing global population there has been a great demand on land and the existing forests are being converted into crop lands. Hence, it is not feasible to expect the conversion of existing farm lands into tree farms. Thus, the focus here is neither on the existing forests nor on the farm land. If deserts are chosen for such tree plantations, diversion of otherwise useful land is avoided. We may take two examples of deserts:1) The Sahara desert, which covers an area of 3,600,000 sq mi. [10] and 2) The Thar desert in India, which covers an area of 77,000 sq mi. [11]
It is known that trees absorb carbon dioxide and also cool the environment. By planting millions of trees in the deserts of the world, we will bring significantly positive impact on the global atmosphere. But, modeling is essential to determine the changes such large scale tree plantation would bring to the global atmosphere and the climate. Concurrently, economic modeling will help in evaluating the economic viability of such a proposal.
Influence of Trees:
American Forests, a Washington, D. C. based organization has some interesting facts about the contribution of trees to life on the earth. The author uses some of the facts (reproduced below) from their website and makes some preliminary calculations in this paper. [12]
• One mature tree absorbs carbon dioxide at a rate of 48 pounds per year.
• In one year, an acre of forest can absorb twice the CO2 produced by the average car’s annual mileage.
• Deforestation accounts for up to 15 percent of global emissions of heat-trapping gases.
• Two mature trees provide enough oxygen for one person to breathe over the course of a year.
• Forests are the largest forms of carbon storage, or sinks, in the U.S.
• In one day, one large tree can absorb up to 100 gallons of water and release it into the air, cooling the surrounding area.
• Forests improve public health by keeping pollutants out of our lungs by trapping and removing dust, ash, pollen and smoke.
From the literature, we gather that an acre of land may contain 500 mature trees. Thus, a square mile of land (i.e. 640 acres) would take 320,000 trees, and those trees can absorb 7,680 tons or 6,860 tonnes (i.e. 320,000 times 48 pounds per year) of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) per year.
Those trees can also absorb 95 billion pounds (320,000 times 100 gallons times 8.36 times 365) of water and release it into the air, cooling the surrounding area. Thus, massive tree plantation in the deserts would also depress the temperature of the atmosphere over the deserts, provided that much water is supplied.
This will have consequential effects on the pattern of global atmosphere.
Costs of Planting and Maintaining Trees:
Tree planting may cost about $100 per tree in US urban areas. [13] Considering that we are discussing tree planting in deserts but in hundreds to thousands of square miles, the costs could be (higher in some respects and lower in some other respects) estimated to be anywhere from $25 to $200 per tree including maintenance costs. Then, the planting and life time maintenance costs per square mile would be from $8 million to $64 million (320,000 times $25 to $200).
It is understood that the desert soil cannot support the growth of small saplings to grow into mature trees. It is hoped that trees that are about five-year old that were grown (potted in good soil) in nurseries elsewhere will be transplanted in the deserts along with the necessary soil.
Since deserts do not have water to sustain the trees, it is essential to set up desalination plants to produce and supply fresh water for the trees. The cost of desalinated water is estimated to be about 0.5 $/m3. [14], [15], [16], and [17] Therefore, it only costs $0.20 per day per tree. (100 gallons/264 cu m/day = 0.4 cu m /day and one cubic meter (or 264 gallons) of desalinated water costs $0.50.) Thus, the costs of water are small while the initial installation costs (for logistics and machinery to supply water) could be an important parameter.
Detailed costs for the maintenance of trees and the income from them are presented in some publications, which may be referred for detailed project estimates. [18], [19], and [20]
Magnitude of the Tree Requirement:
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use were 35.9 gigatonnes (billion tonnes) in 2014. [21] In order to absorb all this carbon dioxide, we will need to have 5 million square miles (35.9 billion tonnes/ 6,860 tonnes per square mile) of mature trees. It will require more than covering the whole Sahara desert with mature trees.
Or, by covering the entire Sahara Desert with mature trees, 25 billion tonnes (3,600,000 sq mi times 6,860 tons per square mile) of CO2 can be absorbed. In other words, the Sahara desert can absorb about 70 percent of the global CO2 if it is filled with mature trees.
For 300 megatons per year (i.e. 300 million tons) of CO2, [22] put out by the European Union (EU), 40,000 square miles (300,000,000 tons / 7,680 tons/square mile) of trees will be needed.
Virtual modeling of the atmosphere:
Such large scale tree plantation in the deserts may not be undertaken without virtual modeling to verify and validate the effects of millions of new trees in the deserts. We need to run atmospheric weather and climate models with such concentrated mega tree farms in the deserts added to the current global weather and climate models. The results could show the changed global weather and climate patterns. Exercising such models for longer time horizons would also reveal if we are causing any unintended but adverse consequences. If the results are encouraging, and the economic models support the economic viability, such generation of new forests in the deserts can be undertaken. IBM is said to have announced [23] its intention to “invest in technologies to predict natural disasters like floods and cyclones in India, …” It would be prudent for IBM to develop atmospheric and climate models to evaluate the effect of a mega-scale tree plantation in the Thar desert in India.
Economics:
By calculating the investment costs, maintenance expenses, it is possible to estimate the unit cost of sequestering carbon dioxide by mega-tree plantations. According to a blog on the Gold Standard website, the monetary value of a ton of reduced carbon dioxide emissions for afforestation or reforestation is $177. [24] Using this value, a square mile of trees will yield nearly $1.4 million per year (7,680 tons per year times $177 per ton). The Sahara desert filled with trees will yield $5 trillion per year (3.6 million times $1.4 million). This results in a Payback period of 5.6 or 45 years (8/1.4 or 64/1.4).
There are additional income streams or saving streams possible when we consider the economics of saving habitable land, which might otherwise the inundated by the rising sea due to global warming and the value of timber from the mega tree complexes. The changes caused by atmospheric effects such as more favorable rains and favorable temperatures in most parts of the earth could also be additional gains. Such costs and benefits for mega tree plantations in deserts can be compared to other technological methods for carbon sequestration that are currently under investigation.
Conclusions and Recommendations:
Based on the above cursory analysis (very approximate that it is), tree plantation on a mega scale could solve the greenhouse gas problem and may even yield highly beneficial weather patterns. It may allow us to enhance the green cover to control global heating and also create a pattern of rains and atmospheric temperatures that benefit the humans.
It is recommended that as a first step, virtual atmospheric modeling effort and economic viability calculations should be undertaken by global organizations and governments.
References:
[1] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=environment_how_ghg_affect_climate
[2] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-four-years-left-one-point-five-carbon-budget
[3] http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/eaao3354
[4] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610269/missing-the-paris-climate-target-by-just-a-little-means-raising-the-odds-of-extreme-weather/?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_content=2018_05_24&utm_campaign=the_download
[5] https://sites.duke.edu/tlge_sss29/carbon-dioxide-emissions/greenhouse-effect/
[6] https://sites.duke.edu/tlge_sss29/carbon-dioxide-emissions/carbon-dioxide/
[7] https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/01/110116-climate-change-greenhouse-gas-floods-storms-water/
[8] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/tackling-climate-change-is-tough-also-a-huge-business-opportunity/articleshow/64900024.cms?utm_source=ETMyNews&utm_medium=HPMN&utm_campaign=AL1&utm_content=20
[9] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_content=2018_05_24&utm_campaign=the_download
[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara
[11] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thar_Desert
[12] http://www.americanforests.org/explore-forests/forest-facts/
[13] https://howmuch.net/costs/tree-install
[14] https://watereuse.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/WateReuse_Desal_Cost_White_Paper.pdf
[15] https://www.advisian.com/en-us/global-perspectives/the-cost-of-desalination
[16] http://www.ros.hw.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/10399/2996/BinMarshadSMH_0814_sbe.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
[17] https://www.pmu.edu.sa/kcfinder/upload/files/Review_of_Saudi_Arabia_Municipal_Water_Tariff.pdf
[18] http://www.aces.edu/pubs/docs/A/ANR-1132/ANR-1132.pdf
[19] http://forestandrange.org/southernpine/index.htm
[20] https://pubs.ext.vt.edu/446/446-604/446-604.html
[21] https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions
[22]
https://www.euractiv.com/section/circular-economy/news/circular-economy-vital-to-eus-quest-to-kill-emissions-study/
[23] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/software/ibm-to-invest-in-tech-to-predict-floods-cyclones-in-india/articleshow/64319639.cms
[24] https://www.goldstandard.org/blog-item/carbon-pricing-what-carbon-credit-worth
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Suggestions to India, US, entrepreneurs, and whoever benefits from reading the Blog.
Friday, July 13, 2018
Saturday, March 24, 2018
The Need for a Virtual Global Water Model
The Necessity for a New Global Water
Model
Som Karamchetty
Problem:
There is a severe
shortage of water in most countries. This shortage is in terms of clean and
potable water for drinking and cooking. The shortage extends to other sectors
like farming, industries, and a number of other uses.
Key Points:
All materials on
earth only get recycled and undergo transformation. Except for sunshine,
nothing comes from outside. Thermal radiation to outer space dissipates some of
the energy. All the water we get on the earth is already here. No water leaves
the planet nor enters it. Hence, it is unlikely that the earth would get any
supply of fresh water from outer space. Furthermore, there is an enormous
quantity of water in the oceans on the earth although it is salty and not
directly usable. Although we complain about water shortage, the real problem is
not getting enough water where and when we want it.
The earth will
continue to receive energy from the sun so long as the sun exists and the earth
rotates around the sun with no permanent obstruction in between. Consequently, technologies
to reform and recycle water using solar energy should be the best option we
have on earth to get plenty of water where we need and when we need it.
Solar evaporation
of seawater is almost continual but it is of finite capacity. It may be
possible to increase it to some extent. If we succeed in increasing the
seawater evaporation and make sure that it falls on the land and not back into
the oceans, we will get more fresh water on the land.
The next step is to
keep the fresh water from running fast to the oceans. We should work on water
infrastructure with good storage. In certain locations, land based fresh water
evaporates due to the incidence of sunshine.
The Water Cycle:
The earth is lucky
to have an enormous storage of water in the oceans. Electromagnetic energy from
the sun (solar radiation) reaches the earth continuously. Owing to the
incidence of thermal energy in the form of solar radiation, water in the oceans
(as well as elsewhere) evaporates, moves up to higher altitudes and clouds are
formed. Different parts of the earth react differently to the solar radiation
in terms of absorption, radiation and retransmission. On the areas of earth
where there is no or a little water, under the effect of solar radiation, the
surface of the earth and the air gets warmer. The warmer air moves up. The net
result is that the air is heated differentially at various locations. Together
with other causes (earth’s rotation, gravity, and so on), there will be
pressure differences and air movements in the earth’s atmosphere. The net
result is that the water vapor laden air over the oceans moves up into higher
altitudes and moves from one location to another. As the earth moves on its own
axis, only parts of it are receiving solar radiation in different proportions
and also for some periods of the day and other parts are exposed to cold deep
space. Thus, any portion of the earth is going through periods of heating (due
to exposure to the sun) and cooling (due to exposure to the cold deep space) in
a day. Since the earth’s rotation is at an inclination, there are seasonal
variations in the winds.
The water vapor in
the air moves upwards and forms clouds, which move with the wind from high
pressure regions to low pressure regions. With low temperatures at higher
altitudes, the water vapor in the clouds condenses into water. At even higher
altitudes, the water vapor in the clouds leads to the formation of snow. As
water and snow are heavier than the surrounding air at the higher altitudes,
they come down to earth as rain or snow fall. Some water returns to the oceans
in the form of rain and snow fall and is of no immediate benefit to us. That
water which comes down to the landed areas is of use to us in various ways.
However, in some cases, upon reaching the mountains, the water flows downhill
and along the rivers so fast that it reaches the ocean depriving us of any benefit.
There is an
important water cycle that benefits us. Solar radiation evaporates sea water
and fresh water becomes clouds and moves up high into the sky. The clouds move
and rain forms thus causing rains and snowfall. Some of the rain and snowfall
occurs over the sea and becomes salt water again. Thus, only that water which
rains or snows on land becomes available to humans for use.
Ideal
Situation:
What do we wish? We
want the fresh water that comes down in the form of rain and snow in a certain
fashion.
·
We
want as much water as we like to use to come down to us on the land and not
directly back to the oceans.
·
We
want the water to come to us where we want and when we want it to suit our use
patterns, such as in farming.
·
We
want to store water so that fresh water is prevented from running back to the
oceans.
·
We
want to lessen the evaporation of freshwater, which is on the land, while we
want unusable water on the land to evaporate.
Research
Thrusts:
In order to fulfill
our wishes (as noted above), we may have to do some research in science and engineering
of the water movement in the atmosphere. Such research should have the
following thrusts.
·
How
to increase (essentially control the rate of water evaporation and
precipitation) in the daily and diurnal cycles?
·
How
to minimize the water returning as rain or snow to the oceans?
·
How
to minimize water returning to the oceans as river flow (floods)?
·
How
to get as much water as we need on the landed areas?
·
How
to get controlled quantities of water when we need it?
Modeling:
The first task is
to develop a model that analyzes the water flow in the atmosphere. This is
perhaps possible by modifying the current atmospheric sciences (weather)
models. These are currently used to forecast the weather patterns at various
scales and time horizons.
The next task is to
construct models that incorporate various large scale changes in the earth’s
ecosystems and find their effects on weather. In such virtual scenarios, the
following questions can be posed.
·
If
large swaths of desert land are filled with (sea water filled) lakes and/or
reforested, what would be the changes in weather pattern?
·
If
large parts of the oceans in selected regions are covered (water is not allowed
to evaporate under solar radiation), what changes in weather would be caused?
·
Once
cause and effect relationship is established in virtual models, questions can
be posed in terms of what should be done to get a certain set of effects?
·
With
such models, it could be possible to augment (increase or decrease or change
the timing or rate) the amount of rain or snowfall in certain areas of the
earth.
·
In
the end, such models might help us to harvest that water which now goes back to
the oceans.
·
Of
course, when such models are developed, the question if any of these mechanisms
can be under sensible human control should also be addressed and answered.
Recommendations:
Develop a model
that analyzes the mechanisms that cause the above described flows.
As we pass more of
our jobs to intelligent machines, we should undertake such advanced modeling to
address such harder mega problems. Of course, Artificial Intelligence might
also come in to help us in this effort.
Useful References
for more Information:
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Proper Legalization of Prostitution to Prevent Ills
Stakeholders’ Dilemma with Prostitution
in India
Background:
There has been a continuing emotional
debate in India
Subhashree Kishore [i]
writes, “Prostitution per se is
not illegal or criminalized in India India
According
to another report [ii]
India
A
United Nations Development Program (UNDP) sponsored study [iv] says
that India has become a key
destination and transit hub for human trafficking from East
Europe and other places. 'Madhya Pradesh is prominent among the
states where women get into sex work and thus get trafficked because of family
traditions. Ninety five percent of the women in Madhya Pradesh in commercial
sex are due to family traditions. So are 51.79 percent in Bihar .
Police
records since 1999 shows that 31 percent of the victims rescued from brothels
in Delhi India
At the training program, [vi]
organized jointly by the United Nations Office Drugs and Crime and Andhra
Pradesh Police Academy, with the intention of creating awareness among the
supporting officers like assistant sub inspectors, head constables and
constables about various forms of human trafficking, the resource person
for the program underscored the need for treating women and girls, who were
forced into flesh trade as victims rather than prostitutes or sex workers.
The Andhra Pradesh
Mahila Samakhya [vii] has
demanded launch of self-employment scheme of small trades each costing Rs.1
lakh by the government for the benefit of sex workers freed from dens in Pune
and New Delhi ,
a majority of them belonging to the State.
The Network Against Sexual
Exploitation in Andhra Pradesh (NATSAP) [viii]
and coordinated by the Tirupati-based Academy of Gandhian Studies (AGS)
rejected the proposal to legalize prostitution through issue of licenses.
A study by Harvard School of
Public Health (HSPH) [x]
has found that 38 per cent of girls and women trafficked to India
According to UNODC (United
Nations Office on Drugs and Crime), [xi]
approximately 150,000 people are trafficked within South Asia annually making
the region the second only to South East Asia in prevalence of human
trafficking. And India
According to an Indian
Express story, [xii] Jammu and Kashmir
A report in The Hindu
says, [xiii]
“From selling themselves on roadsides to house keeping jobs in star hotels. Sex
workers in the city are contemplating a shift in career, a ‘respectable’ and
legal one at that.”
A meet organized by an
advocacy group `Mana Mythri,' on `Sexworkers Rights Day' demonstrated [xiv]
the wide gap between the two existing views; One, the sex workers' plea to let
them lead the profession decently, and the other on weaning them away from it
with promises of rehabilitation.
Sex workers, under the
banner of Godavari Mahila Samakhya and `Naari Sakshyam', [xv]
have demanded statute for their `profession' (flesh trade) and welcomed DGP
Swaranjit Sen's statement to issue licenses.
This problem has been studied widely
and police action against the prostitutes, traffickers, and brothels is
continually reported as seen in a constant stream of news reports. [xvi]
Analysis
of the Problem:
Prostitution is a complex problem
spanning the moral, human, political, and legal dimensions. As leaders,
managers, administrators, officials, and citizens take extreme positions, the
victims continue to suffer, the criminal and unscrupulous elements in the
society add hordes of new victims to the trade, and finally, the patrons escape
with small time pleasure and long term harm to themselves, their families and
to the society at large.
Let us be dispassionate about it
for a little while and conduct an analysis of the actors in this profession. Broadly
speaking, prostitutes, patrons, pimps, traffickers, society, and government are
the stakeholders and they play the following roles. A prostitute offers sexual
pleasure or satisfaction to patrons and receives some money or other
consideration for the services. The patron pays for the services he receives. There
are the two main parties that constitute the supply and demand in this service.
If there is neither money nor something of value exchanged, it is not called
prostitution. So we may leave all other forms of sexual services out of the
present discussion without passing any grades to those other services. The
pimps are like marketers of the services for the prostitutes. In reality, these
people also act as managers and owners of the establishments that employ
prostitutes.
Why do some women become
prostitutes? Again, let us attempt a simple answer. Perhaps some women actually
choose the profession as their principal livelihood lacking any other means of
earning. Let us assume that some, a small proportion, choose it as they enjoy
it and the income is considered easy and good. But the large majority of the
prostitutes is forced into this profession by traffickers. Women who are
destitute, or weak, or young, or otherwise helpless are duped into this
profession by the traffickers as a means of making money for themselves.
The rest of the society does not
like the idea of the existence of prostitution for a variety of reasons. Many
good citizens simply wish that it did not exist. Others feel offended when they
are told that this profession exists in their society. Government is the last
stakeholder in this area and exists as several sub-actors. The lawmakers make
the laws. The courts enforce the laws. The police apprehend and book the law
breakers.
The society is on the receiving
end of many of the problems borne out of this profession. Coming right after
moral and human rights issues, the chief problems relate to health, both mental
and physical. In the last three or four decades, HIV and AIDS are threatening
large scale destabilization of societies. Public health care professionals are
not able to get a handle on this problem as this sector is not organized,
although it deals with the supply and demand of a service. Social workers,
where they exist, also find it difficult to counsel prostitutes as it is mostly
an under the radar service.
Sections of the society want the
government to ban the service while failing to realize that a public ban will
have little or no effect when the trade is not in public and the market forces
overwhelm the law enforcement and rehabilitation resources. In fact, historically,
society made many missteps in this area. It excommunicated the prostitutes and
their children. The poor children, who were a byproduct of the practice, were
also deprived of the inheritance rights to their natural parental properties
and titles. Unfortunately, those injudicious but harsh treatments by the
society did not extinguish the practice, but they only created an underclass
that was forced into a cycle of prostitution as a profession by birth.
By and large, the society did not
take stern action against the patrons as they are the drivers of demand and
customers in the transactions. In some cases, the society even elevated them to
an exalted status. Both the patrons and the prostitutes acted as sources of
sexually transmitted diseases. Especially, the patrons brought these diseases
back home and infected a wider cross section of the society. In the recent
past, HIV AIDS are spread by these patrons in a variety of encounters.
Systems
Analysis:
Under these circumstances, what
are the essential steps to an approach to a solution? When a system is
undergoing a process and if the society wants to control the process, it has to
prescribe boundaries and develop controls. The process parameters have to be measured
and controls instituted to change the state of the system. What does this
translate to in the current problem? Figure 1 shows a schematic representation
of the players in the profession.
Figure 1: Traditional system with
primary actors in the business
Prostitution has to be defined and
placed into a system, which means it has to be organized. Regardless of what
our moral and spiritual compasses might point to, the society has to bring
prostitution into an organized sector, be it in the metropolitan cities or
remote tiny villages. The government has to pass laws on all aspects of prostitution.
It prescribes certain parameters for the organized form of it and hands out
extremely severe penalties for the unorganized sector. Legalizing the
profession should not merely mean a free reign for all the current actors. It
is not like letting the dogs loose! For example, the law has to require both
the patrons and the prostitutes to carry licenses just like driving licenses to
operate a vehicle on the road. Those that indulge in the exchange of these
services without the licenses should receive penalties at three levels –
counseling, monetary, and finally, incarceration. Like in any licensing
operation, there must be certain preconditions for obtaining a license. These
prerequisites may be in the areas of health, and mental competence. This means
a patron obtains a medical certification that he does not currently suffer from
sexually transmitted diseases and HIV AIDS. Once this is recognized as an
organized sector, a list of those who have received licenses is published on a
local and a national web site as a public service. The licenses are maintained
by periodic (say quarterly) medical certifications based on the health
statistics of the nation, the region, and the locality. Since the government
has a responsibility to protect the family members, in general, communications
with the patrons are conducted openly so that the family circle may take
necessary precautions, be they from the point of view of health, finance, or
morals.
The prostitutes are similarly
medically tested periodically (say monthly) as a condition for continued
practice of the profession. Those that carry a sexually transmittable virus
will not be given a license but will become eligible for medical treatment and
financial support for living from a concomitant insurance or government’s
social welfare scheme. There must be an age limit (perhaps between 21 and 50)
for a woman to practice this profession. This restriction should eliminate the
under-aged and the old.
An important criterion should be
that prostitutes can only be in sole proprietorship or in a partnership with
other practicing prostitutes. The proprietors should be their own marketing and
sales professionals. This requirement disallows managers or other owners in
this profession. In the first instance, it eliminates pimps. Any person
offering the prostitution services of another person should be given a three
level punishment. The first offence is treated with counseling, the second with
a severe monetary penalty, and finally a long prison sentence. Prostitutes or
partnerships employing pimps should be denied license renewals.
The next category is the
traffickers. These people entrap young children and transport them across state
and national boundaries. Then they place these hapless victims into
prostitution through established houses or pimps. These acts are already
criminal under current laws. In order to have a greater impact in the future,
these acts should draw extremely severe punishments including life term and capital
punishment in certain defined cases.
Prostitution as a family tradition
should not be accepted. Prostitutes should not be allowed to enroll their
Children into this service automatically. In fact, the practice of the
profession out of homes of prostitutes where they bring up their children
should be prohibited. In those cases, the children should be removed form those
homes into child welfare hostels.
Children born to prostitutes must
be tested to prove parentage. Even when prostitutes have married partners,
these tests should be mandatory. This is where a list of customers becomes
vital. By scientific medical testing, parentage should be proven and
inheritance rights of these children established.
Traditionally, prostitutes and
their children bore all the risks in the profession. The patrons got away with
a nominal fee they paid for the service. All other rights are flushed down the
drain. The patron’s family drew sympathy from the community for a negligent
gentleman who visited these houses and reached home to a late night meal and a
waiting wife. The patron’s children born in wedlock did not share inheritance
rights with any other children born even though they shared the same genes.
As stated earlier, some mature
adults choose this profession voluntarily. When they make that choice, it is
either out of a physical or mental urge or for the money offered by this
profession. Usually, when women have no other skills or education joined this
trade. Periodic counseling is prescribed in the licensing process in order to educate
such women and open up other professional opportunities. At this stage, governments,
philanthropic organizations, and other self help groups should be coming forth
to offer educational and skill development opportunities to those who want to
get out of the profession.
Now let us take a look at the
patrons and why they look for the services of this profession. Traditionally,
“bad is cool” attitude encouraged young people to experiment with these
services. Like all habits, it bends the victims and they become patrons no
matter their socio economic group. There is also the prestige issue venerated
by the culture or folk lore. In some cases, it is a physiological or
psychological necessity, perhaps compounded by marital discordance at home.
This is why periodic counseling of patrons is suggested as part of the legal
framework. During these counseling sessions, the medical and social counselors
may find out if medical or psychological, or social therapies can help the
patrons from seeking these services. In the long term, the medical profession
should look for cures, be they with conventional medicines or gene
manipulations. Those with a history of violence should be denied the licenses
as patrons. Those with HIV AIDS and other transmissible diseases should also be
denied the licenses as patrons.
In Western societies, with liberal
attitudes towards sex prior to marriage and out of wedlock, people find outlets
to their physical and psychological urges. But even in these somewhat casual
encounters, investment of a lot of effort and time is necessary. Not willing to
make such investments, some people buy their way into whorehouses. For these
and perhaps for some other reasons, the Western society did not attempt to
study the physiological and sociological aspects of this area in depth. There
are no concerted attempts to eliminate this practice in the West. On the other
hand, the pharmaceutical companies in the West have invented Viagra and other
drugs and procedures to assist people’s urge and prowess rather than to curtail
it even in cases where there are no ready partners. Hence the onus is on India
With the suggested regulation and
licensing, the system will look as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Proposed system and
regulation
In the proposed arrangement, the
government separates the various actors and treats them differently. For
example, the traffickers, pimps, and brothel owners are prohibited to have any
part in this profession. They are treated severely to the extent of forfeiture
of their complete assets and long incarceration. The prostitutes and patrons
are brought into a licensed and regulated system. The prostitutes are given every opportunity
to get out of the profession and to rehabilitate. Finally, the patrons are
expected to pay a heavy price at every step. Government officials, social workers,
and human rights organizations are assigned affirmative roles to regulate and
control the system. As exemplary monetary remunerations and penalties are
proposed in the system, there should be enough funds to accomplish the assigned
tasks.
Will
the new System work?
Perhaps, the proposed system has a
greater chance of working. The critical steps are in breaking the connections
between the traffickers, pimps, and brothels on the one hand and the
prostitutes on the other. In any business, it is the financing, marketing, and
training of service providers that make or break a business. These functions
and functionaries are isolated and broken up. The penalties on traffickers,
pimps, and brothel owners should escalate from counseling, to confiscation of
all property, and to long criminal convictions in order to effectively snuff
these operators. On the other end, the patrons traditionally paid a very small
price in return for these services. Their reputation, property, civil and
professional status, and family life are disrupted a little or none at all in
the traditional arrangement. On the other hand, in the proposed arrangement, if
the patrons do not register, they should be subject to harsh penalties
progressively from counseling to confiscation of property to harsh criminal
penalties. Those who register will go through separate counseling and
healthcare processes, and pay a higher price for the services they receive in
the form of license fees, health insurance, social notification, family
influence, and financial care of children born to prostitutes.
It is expected that the welfare of
the prostitutes will be improved in many ways. Elimination of the presence of
traffickers and pimps will make the prostitutes free from bondage. The fee for prostitution
service will increase and thus their financial well being is improved. Periodic
counseling by social workers and healthcare professionals will give them a
chance to leave the profession altogether. Since the prostitutes are out of the
bondage and the profession is out of the closets, the SHG’s can provide them
economic and job counseling and training in alternate professions, which may
also convince the erstwhile victims to leave the profession. Restrictions that
they keep children away from their professional activities should make it safer
for the next generation. Identification of fathers and grant of inheritance
rights to the property of natural father patrons makes the next generation to
pursue other professions.
Strategic
Plan:
Any steps Indian government and
society take will lead to the rehabilitation of the existing four million or
the anticipated ten million prostitutes in the next 5 to 10 years. The
government has to develop a strategic plan, which has to take into account the human
resources (administrative, police, legal, judicial, human rights, health care,
social welfare, career counselors and technical personnel), and financial
resources required to accomplish the goals. Here is a list of key tasks:
·
Enact necessary legislation
·
Allocate budgets
·
Appoint Program Execution Officer
·
Develop Memoranda of agreements
between various governments and self help groups
·
Recruit and train officials and
operatives
·
Prepare information and
dissemination methods to reach most of the population
·
Develop standard operating
processes (SOP) so that tasks pass on smoothly between various government
officials and SHG’s
·
Develop the necessary hard and
soft infrastructure to apprehend, bring to justice, and incarcerate the
criminal elements speedily; and rescue, counsel, protect, and rehabilitate the
victims; and to ensure that the rights of all parties are protected
·
Develop standards, metrics, and
measures of performance and monitor the progress of the processes and systems
·
Provide review reports with
feedback periodically for the government and society to take necessary
corrective measures.
Conclusion:
It should be repeated that this
proposal suggests a licensing and regulatory system for prostitution. But the
aim is not to look for a flourishing system of prostitution. The goal is to
break the nexus between the traffickers and brothels and the inhuman entrapment
of young girls into depraved prostitution. On the one hand, it calls for
extreme punishment meted out to traffickers and pimps. Of course, it also calls
for punishing the prostitutes who work with these groups of criminals
willingly. It then looks to rescue the girls and women who are forced into the
trade by the unscrupulous elements. It emphasizes that the rescued women are
given kind, considerate, and decent opportunities for them to leave the
profession permanently. These efforts will cost significant amounts that
governments may hesitate and shirk their full responsibilities and support.
Through a strong system of vigilance, openness, and law enforcement, stiff
monetary penalties can be imposed on patrons and compensate for part of the
expenses. Finally, the society has to recognize that the males of the society
have been patronizing this profession for some sociological, psychological, and
medical reason and it has to begin path breaking research into the causes and
cures for this behavior and demand. Perhaps, India will discover a practice or
medical therapy to cure men of this ancient urge.
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